Rand Paul struggles to hold on to father’s base while broadening his support
Conventional wisdom says Rand Paul’s most obvious path to the GOP presidential nomination is to build on the network of committed supporters that his dad assembled four years ago, while broadening his appeal to a more mainstream audience. If the list of New Hampshire endorsements announced by the campaign yesterday is any indication, that strategy may be jeopardy.
Four years ago, 29 New Hampshire state representatives publicly supported Ron Paul’s quixotic campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, but only three of the eight lawmakers who endorsed Paul Sr. and continue to serve in the House today have endorsed his son’s campaign.
The three Ron Paul supporters endorsing Rand Paul’s campaign are Free Stater Reps. Laura Jones (R-Rochester) and Keith Murphy (R-Bedford) and Rep. Tammy Simmons (R-Manchester). (Simmons was not one of the 20 lawmakers on yesterday’s list but she joined Paul’s staff as New Hampshire operations manager earlier this year.)
The five Ron Paul supporters who are conspicuous by their absence are Reps. Guy Comtois (R-Center Barnstead), JR Hoell (R-Dunbarton), Paul Ingbretson (R-Pike), Laurence Rappaport (R-Colebrook) and Kathy Souza (R-Manchester).
Politico and Business Insider have reported on the disillusionment voiced by some of the state’s Ron Paul supporters. A comment from Free State Project chairman Aaron Day sums up their unease. “One of the big concerns is whether or not he’s left his liberty base and is he moving towards the center in reality or just for the purpose of optics,” Day told Politico.
Paul’s list of endorsements suggests he has not been able to offset defections from the true believers with more mainstream House members. Jones and Simmons are the only members of the GOP House leadership team, which includes all of the committee chairs and vice-chairs, to endorse Paul yesterday.
In a detailed analysis, FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten captures Paul’s dilemma. On social/military issues, Enten writes, Paul would be the most liberal Republican nominee since Richard Nixon. But his economic record would make him the most conservative candidate since Barry Goldwater. “In Paul’s dream world,” Enten concludes, “he’ll satisfy everyone. In the most likely real world, he’ll end up satisfying no one.”