Larry Sabato: N.H. Senate race moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has a pretty good track record when it comes to election predictions. So it’s worth noting that he and his team have moved the race for New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate seat from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
“Brown entered the New Hampshire contest already well known, but that does not necessarily mean he’s well-liked,” writes Sabato. “In polling, Brown’s favorability and unfavorability are typically either about even — as they were in a recent NBC News/Marist poll showing him down eight points to Shaheen — or negative,” he notes, “and he’s done little during the campaign so far to improve those numbers.”
Sabato does say it’s possible the race “will drift back into a more competitive category later in the cycle” but notes it could also “be eclipsed by races that have not been getting much attention so far.”
Looking at the bigger picture, Sabato echoes an observation Nate Cohn made in the New York Times last week. There’s scant evidence, so far, that a wave election similar to those of 2006 and 2010 is developing. “Let’s stipulate that a wave can develop late in the season, in September or even October,” he writes. “But 2014 is no 2006. … 2014 is also no 2010.”