Election recap: Voter turnout in N.H. Democratic strongholds offset GOP surge
In contrast with other key swing states, heavy turnout by Democratic voters in New Hampshire’s bluest towns offset a surge of voters casting ballots for Donald Trump and kept the state in the Clinton column.
In an election postmortem, New York Times editor David Leonhardt noted it is becoming clear that turnout sealed the fate of Democrats’ fortunes this cycle. “In the simplest terms, Republican turnout seems to have surged this year, while Democratic turnout stagnated,” he wrote.
Leonhardt pointed to an analysis of election returns from six swing states: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. The study by YouGov’s chief scientist Douglas Rivers indicated turnout rose more in conservative areas than in liberal ones.
“In counties where Trump won at least 70 percent of the vote, the number of votes cast rose 2.9 percent versus 2012,” Leonhardt wrote. “By comparison, in counties where Clinton won at least 70 percent, the vote count was 1.7 percent lower this year.”
Contrast that with voter turnout in the Granite State. We compiled election results from the Secretary of State’s office and used Rivers’ methodology to compare this year’s record turnout with that from 2012.
Overall, turnout in districts won by Trump increased by 6.0 percent over 2012 compared to a 4.2 percent increase in towns and wards carried by Clinton, but the greatest increase in voter turnout, 7.9 percent, came from the 29 voting districts Clinton carried with over 65 percent of the two-party vote.
This group includes Democratic strongholds Concord, Durham, Hanover, Portsmouth and Keene. Turnout in five of the Democratic-leaning districts grew by double digits: Durham (+31 percent), Manchester Ward 3 (+18 percent), Concord Ward 4 (+12 percent), Dover Ward 2 (+11 percent) and Keene Ward 5 (+11 percent).
Many Republicans, of course, reflexively interpret heavy turnout in Democratic towns as prima facie evidence of voter fraud. “When Massachusetts elections are not very close, they’re busing them in all over the place,” Gov.-elect Chris Sununu told radio host Howie Carr just before the election. Trump supporter state Rep. Susan DeLemus agrees. “Just imagine what the final popular vote would have been without the massive voter fraud!!!” she wrote.