2016 election preview: Open seats provide Democrats opportunity to control state Senate
In contrast with the state House of Representatives, where the partisan makeup of the chamber closely mirrors top-of-ballot voting results, entrenched incumbents in the state Senate have historically had a much better chance of weathering partisan swings.
In 2010, UNH political science professor Dante Scala measured the “incumbent effect” in the New Hampshire Senate and found incumbency had provided as much as a 13-point advantage.
The advantage of incumbency, combined with a redistricting scheme that packed Democratic voters into a handful of senate districts in which they already had an overwhelming advantage, propelled Republicans to a 14-10 advantage in 2014.
Despite the gerrymandered districts, Pres. Obama carried 13 of the state’s 24 senate districts in 2012. And this year, the three districts Obama carried in 2012 that elected Republican senators in 2014 will all be open seats: Sen. Jerry Little (R-Weare) resigned from his District 8 seat to accept an appointment as state banking commissioner; 2nd District Sen. Jeanie Forrester (R-Meredith) is running for governor; and at 79 years of age, 6th District Sen. Sam Cataldo (R-Farmington) announced his retirement.
Democrats have a relatively straightforward path to winning control of the upper chamber – a task made easier in a presidential election year when Democratic voters typically turn out in higher numbers: win the two open seats in Democratic strongholds, hold the eight seats held by incumbents and win three of the four open seats in swing districts.
This chart lists the senate districts in order of the percentage of the total vote Obama received in 2012.