Updated: April 26, 2012, 6:25 p.m.
Democratic challengers Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are leading in their likely Congressional rematches with Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll, Shea-Porter leads Guinta 44%-39%, with 16% undecided. Kuster leads Bass by a 40%-39% margin, with 20% undecided.
Guinta’s popularity is down slightly from February. 31% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 28% view him unfavorably. Absence has made the heart grow fonder for Shea-Porter who now owns a +13% net favorability rating, a 20-point gain from two years ago. 43% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion.
Bass’ favorability ratings are above water for the first time since his election. 39% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 36% view him unfavorably. 26% have a favorable opinion of Kuster with 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +13%, compared to Bass’ +3%, but her name recognition has dropped since the 2010 election.
Both sitting Congressmen have had challenges since their election. Each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Guinta was ranked as the 31st most conservative member of Congress by National Journal, more conservative than arch-conservative Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and subsamples of 230 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.5% and 251 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
The two major Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading both Republican opponents in head-to-head match-ups. Today’s WMUR Granite State Poll indicates, though, that all four candidates are relatively unknown and large numbers of voters have yet to decide.
Democrat Maggie Hassand leads Ovide Lamontagne among likely voters by 34%-29% margin with 36% undecided and bests Kevin Smith 29%-24% with 46% undecided. Fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley edges Lamontagne 31%-30% with 38% undecided and leads Smith 30%-23% with 47% undecided.
Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center reviews the numbers and concludes, “These candidates are not even very well-known among their own party.” Hassan, Cilley and Smith are unknown to more than 80% of New Hampshire voters. Voters are only slightly more familiar with Lamontagne who is unknown to 54% of voters.
Hassan and Cilley are equally well-known, and well-liked, by Democratic voters. Hassan has a +18% net favorability rating among registered Democrats (20% favorable, 2% unfavorable). Cilley’s favorability rating among Democrats is an almost identical +17% (20% favorable, 3% unfavorable).
Lamontagne has a name recognition advantage over Smith in their battle for the GOP nomination. 39% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Lamontagne compared to 8% who have an unfavorable opinion. Smith is much less well-known, with 9% of Republicans saying they like him and 5% saying they don’t.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
There’s good news for the Obama campaign in the latest WMUR Granite State Poll. The survey of likely New Hampshire voters has President Obama maintaining a nine-point lead for the state’s four electoral votes in a presidential match-up with Mitt Romney.
Obama’s 51%-42% lead is essentially unchanged from early February when he led Romney by a 50%-40% margin in the same poll. Granite State women voters favor Obama by 55%-37% margin compared to 47%-46% support from men, a 17-point gender gap.
Romney also faces a likability gap. 51% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 44% view him unfavorably, a +7% net favorability rating. This contrasts sharply with Romney’s -15% net favorability rating. 31% of adults view him favorably compared to 56% who hold a negative opinion of the former Massachusetts governor.
“In the early stages of general election campaigns,” Nate Silver reminds us, “a president’s approval ratings have often been at least as accurate a guide to his eventual performance as the head-to-head numbers.”
More good news for Obama. 50% of New Hampshire adults approve of the job Obama is doing as president compared to 47% who disapprove. “By comparison,” points out Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center, “George W. Bush’s New Hampshire approval rating in April 2004 stood at 48%.”
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
House Bill 1607 and Senate Bill 372 would create a school voucher program granting tax credits to businesses funding scholarships for students to attend private schools, religious schools or home schools.
The Carsey Institute reports that, based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, New Hampshire voters are virtually universal in their opposition to this attack on the state’s public schools.
The survey found there was very little support among New Hampshire voters for using state funds to help students attend private school. Public school parents were very satisfied with their local schools and were even more opposed than all voters to using state money to help students attend private schools.
55 percent of all voters oppose using state funds to help students attend private schools compared to only 23 percent who support it. They oppose using tax credits to help students attend private schools by a 41 percent to 27 percent margin. The opposition is bipartisan. Republicans oppose both measures by 43 percent to 36 percent and 36 percent to 30 percent margins respectively.
Supporters assert that New Hampshire public schools are failing and parents are demanding alternatives — but someone apparently forgot to tell parents.
68 percent of public school parents saying that they are extremely satisfied (six percent), very satisfied (31 percent) or somewhat satisfied (31 percent) with the quality of education in their local schools — more than double the 30 percent who express some level of dissatisfaction.
The WMUR Granite State Poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which interviewed 527 New Hampshire adults between January 25 and February 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.
The latest WMUR Granite State Poll surveyed Granite State adults on several high profile issues being debated in the legislature. The results show an electorate at odds with two of the key initiatives being promoted by the House Republican leadership.
- Opposition to repeal of same-sex marriage is overwhelming
New Hampshire adults oppose repeal of same-sex marriage by a 59 percent to 32 percent margin. Among those who feel strongly about the issue, opponents of repeal outnumber supporters by a 2-to-1 margin with 48 percent strongly opposing repeal compared to just 23 percent who strongly support it. These figures have remained remarkably constant over the past year in earlier surveys from WMUR and Voter Consumer Research.
- Support for a constitutional amendment to prohibit a state income tax is far short of the required two-thirds majority
New Hampshire voters are evenly divided on a a proposed constitutional amendment to prohibit a state tax on income. 39 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for the amendment, 41 percent would oppose it. The House-passed amendment requires Senate approval before being presented to the voters. A two-thirds majority vote would then be required to amend the state constitution.
- Granite Staters support voter photo ID legislation
One Republican issue that does appear to have broad support is requiring voters to present photo identification in order to vote. 68 percent expressed support for a voter ID law compared to 24 percent who oppose it. The support crosses partisan lines with majorities among Republicans (87 to 10 percent), Independents (69 to 22 percent) and Democrats (52 to 37 percent ).
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 527 New Hampshire adults were interviewed between January 25 and February 2, 2012 for the survey, which has a +/- 4.3 percent margin of error.
When asked to name the most important problem facing the state, 39 percent of New Hampshire adults expressed concerns about jobs and the economy. And the second most identified problem? The Republican state legislature!
That’s right, in the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, ten percent of New Hampshire adults identified GOP lawmakers as their biggest concern, more than those who named the state budget, health care, taxes or education quality. And the number is growing. In October, six percent of the respondents identified Republicans in the legislature as the state’s most important problem.
In other news, the survey confirmed that Gov. John Lynch is very popular (with a 68 percent approval rating and a +52 percent net favorability rating) and that most of us don’t know enough about the potential gubernatorial candidates to have an opinion about any of them.
The WMUR Granite State Poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which interviewed 527 New Hampshire adults between January 25 and February 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.
New Hampshire Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass continue to be unpopular in their congressional districts.
According to the latest WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, only 30% of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, the same percentage who have an unfavorable opinion. Bass fares even worse. 29% of 2nd District adults hold a favorable opinion of Bass compared to 36% with an unfavorable view.
Guinta and Bass are both coming off a lackluster fundraising quarter in which they shared a spot on National Journal’s list of the “Top 10 House Fundraising Flops.” Last month, each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).
558 New Hampshire adults were surveyed by phone from October 7 to 16, 2011 with a margin of error of +/-4.1%. The survey includes subsamples of 257 adults in the 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/- 6.1%), and 302 adults in the 2nd Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-5.6%).
6% of New Hampshire adults say the most important problem facing the state of New Hampshire today is “Republicans in the state legislature.” This was the third most frequently cited problem, following jobs and the economy (48%) and the state budget (7%). Republicans in the legislature are seen as a bigger problem than taxes (5%), health care (4%) and education funding (4%).
The WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, surveyed 558 New Hampshire adults by phone from October 7 to 16, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/-4.1%.
A new WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, indicates little support among New Hampshire adults for repealing the state’s law legalizing same sex marriage.
62% of the respondents say they oppose repeal (50% strongly oppose, 12% somewhat oppose) compared to just 27% supporting repeal (22% strongly support, 5% somewhat support).
The survey also found that supporters of marriage equality are more likely to punish state House and Senate candidates for voting against their position. 63% of those who support same sex marriage said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports repeal. 44% of those opposing marriage equality would be less likely to vote for a candidate who opposes repeal.
The survey of 500 New Hampshire adults was conducted by phone from September 26 to October 2, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/-4.4%.
By a 73% - 24% margin, New Hampshire residents favor some tax increases to help address New Hampshire’s budget shortfall. As the severity of the proposed spending cuts in the GOP House budget has become known, those who favor balancing the budget with spending cuts alone has decreased from 29% to 24%.
A new WMUR Granite State Poll asked respondents to select the approach they would choose to deal with the budget shortfall. 24% responded entirely with spending cuts, 21% said mainly spending cuts with some tax increases, 36% chose an even balance, 11% said mainly tax increases and some spending cuts, and 5% chose to address the budget shortfall entirely with tax increases.
When asked about spending cuts for specific programs, solid majorities said there should be no spending cuts in healthcare services for lower income residents (60% - 39%) or mental health services (59% - 39%). The respondents expressed support for at least “some spending cuts” in funding for hospitals (56% - 39%), infrastructure projects (54% - 43%), and state university and community colleges budgets (52% - 46%). Less than 10% support “significant cuts” for any program.
The comprehensive survey also indicated there is little support for GOP-backed proposals limiting workers’ collective bargaining rights.
Several states, from Wisconsin to Massachusetts, have sought to curb state spending by limiting the ability of public employees to collectively bargain for benefits. There is little support for this proposal in New Hampshire. Most state residents (66%) think that private sector workers should have the right to form unions and collectively bargain and 62% think that public employees, should have that right.
The Granite State Poll — sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center — interviewed 504 New Hampshire adults between April 15 and April 26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.
A new poll from Public Polling Policy indicates New Hampshire voters might be experiencing buyer’s remorse with the Republican majorities they elected to the state legislature in 2010.
By a 49% - 41% margin, voters now say they would vote for a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in their district if the election were held today. This represents a 16-18 point swing from voter sentiment measured just before the 2010 midterm election. In October 2010, a WMUR Granite State Poll found voters favoring Senate Republicans by a 47% - 39% margin and House Republicans by a 47% - 37% margin.
The plurality of voters identified as Independents favor Democrats by a 46% - 34% margin. Voters describing themselves as “moderate” favor Democrats by a whopping 61% - 22% margin.
PPP surveyed 769 New Hampshire voters on March 31-April 3, 2011. The margin of error is +/-3.5%.
Yet another poll is out showing Mitt Romney with an overwhelming lead in the 2012 New Hampshire presidential primary. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll, Romney clocks in with 40% of likely Republican primary voters, 30 points ahead of his nearest rival.
But the only real question is: does his candidacy collapse before the primary or after?
Greg Sargent describes Romney’s dilemma:
Mitt Romney’s health care dilemma is akin to a Gordian Knot. Conservatives are insistent that Romney explain his previous support for the individual mandate, in order to prove he’s not ideologically suspect, but when he does try to explain it, he only reinforces the sense that he’s ideologically malleable and opportunistic.
David Frum is more succinct:
If Romney does not apologize for Romneycare, he’s dead. Of course if he does apologize, he is deader.
