PPP Poll: Dems Have “Pretty Good Chance to Win”

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter leads Rep. Frank Guinta by a 47%-43% margin in the latest survey from Public Policy Polling, an 11-point swing from last summer when Guinta had a 48%-41% advantage in the 1st District race.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Congressman Charlie Bass and Democratic challenger Ann Kuster are tied at 42%. The race is essentially unchanged from last summer’s survey.

The old adage goes that voters hate Congress, but like their Congressman. In New Hampshire though they don’t appear to like either. Democrats have a pretty good chance at winning back the two seats they lost there in 2010 this fall.


PPP Poll: N.H. Governor Race a “Toss-Up”

Public Policy Polling calls the New Hampshire gubernatorial race a “toss up,” with Democrats Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan both basically tied with Republican Ovide Lamontagne.

In the primary battles, Lamontagne has opened up a wide 53-13 lead over challenger Kevin Smith. Hassan leads Cilley 23-20 but PPP says the Democratic primary “looks pretty wide open” with 57% of voters undecided.


PPP Poll: “Opinions Are Changing and Changing Fast”


PPP Poll: Obama 53%, Romney 41% (N.H.)

The latest survey from Public Policy Polling gives Pres. Obama a commanding 12-point lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Obama has surged to a 53-41 lead, a 14-point swing from ten months ago when Romney led 46-44.

The reason for this huge boost in Obama’s fortunes in this swing state is two-fold: an improvement in his own public image and a decline in Romney’s.

Romney is improving with his partisans (up from 63% to 77% favorability with Republicans), but has slipped drastically from a barely positive 43-42 favorability spread overall to 40% seeing him favorably and 54% unfavorably now. That negative movement is entirely with Democrats (from 25-58 to 8-89) and independents (43-40 to 38-53).

On the flip side, 52% approve and 45% disapprove of the president’s job performance, up 10 points on the margin from 46-49 last summer. Obama is also consolidating support with his base (from 83% to 92% approval) but also with independents (from 39% to 51%).

PPP surveyed 1,163 New Hampshire voters with a margin of error of +/-2.9%. The automated telephone interviews were conducted May 10-13, 2012.


WMUR Granite State Poll: Shea-Porter, Kuster Lead

Updated: April 26, 2012, 6:25 p.m. 

Democratic challengers Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are leading in their likely Congressional rematches with Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll,  Shea-Porter leads Guinta 44%-39%, with 16% undecided. Kuster leads Bass by a 40%-39% margin, with 20% undecided.  

Guinta’s popularity is down slightly from February. 31% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 28% view him unfavorably. Absence has made the heart grow fonder for Shea-Porter who now owns a +13% net favorability rating, a 20-point gain from two years ago. 43% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion.

Bass’ favorability ratings are above water for the first time since his election. 39% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 36% view him unfavorably. 26% have a favorable opinion of Kuster with 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +13%, compared to Bass’ +3%, but her name recognition has dropped since the 2010 election.

Both sitting Congressmen have had challenges since their election. Each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Guinta was ranked as the 31st most conservative member of Congress by National Journal, more conservative than arch-conservative Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and subsamples of 230 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.5% and 251 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.


WMUR Granite State Poll: Dems Lead N.H. Gov Race

The two major Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading both Republican opponents in head-to-head match-ups. Today’s WMUR Granite State Poll indicates, though, that all four candidates are relatively unknown and large numbers of voters have yet to decide.

Democrat Maggie Hassand leads Ovide Lamontagne among likely voters by 34%-29% margin with 36% undecided and bests Kevin Smith 29%-24% with 46% undecided. Fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley edges Lamontagne 31%-30% with 38% undecided and leads Smith 30%-23% with 47% undecided.

Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center reviews the numbers and concludes, “These candidates are not even very well-known among their own party.” Hassan, Cilley and Smith are unknown to more than 80% of New Hampshire voters. Voters are only slightly more familiar with Lamontagne who is unknown to 54% of voters.

Hassan and Cilley are equally well-known, and well-liked, by Democratic voters. Hassan has a +18% net favorability rating among registered Democrats (20% favorable, 2% unfavorable). Cilley’s favorability rating among Democrats is an almost identical +17% (20% favorable, 3% unfavorable).

Lamontagne has a name recognition advantage over Smith in their battle for the GOP nomination. 39% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Lamontagne compared to 8% who have an unfavorable opinion. Smith is much less well-known, with 9% of Republicans saying they like him and 5% saying they don’t.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.


WMUR Granite State Poll: Obama 51%, Romney 42%

There’s good news for the Obama campaign in the latest WMUR Granite State Poll. The survey of likely New Hampshire voters has President Obama maintaining a nine-point lead for the state’s four electoral votes in a presidential match-up with Mitt Romney.

Obama’s 51%-42% lead is essentially unchanged from early February when he led Romney by a 50%-40% margin in the same poll. Granite State women voters favor Obama by 55%-37% margin compared to 47%-46% support from men, a 17-point gender gap.

Romney also faces a likability gap. 51% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 44% view him unfavorably, a +7% net favorability rating. This contrasts sharply with Romney’s -15% net favorability rating. 31% of adults view him favorably compared to 56% who hold a negative opinion of the former Massachusetts governor.

“In the early stages of general election campaigns,” Nate Silver reminds us, “a president’s approval ratings have often been at least as accurate a guide to his eventual performance as the head-to-head numbers.”

More good news for Obama. 50% of New Hampshire adults approve of the job Obama is doing as president compared to 47% who disapprove. “By comparison,” points out Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center, “George W. Bush’s New Hampshire approval rating in April 2004 stood at 48%.”

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.


On Push Polls, Red Herrings and Missing Email Records

Last week, the state’s attorney general filed a civil suit against Congressman Charlie Bass’ campaign for failing to identify itself as the sponsor of a “push poll” during the 2010 campaign.

“The poll in question was a legitimate message testing survey, not a push poll,” claimed Bass spokesman Scott Tranchemontagne. Former New Hampshire GOP chair Fergus Cullen echoed his defense, “He appears to have conducted a standard poll of 400 New Hampshire voters,” wrote Cullen, “no different in nature from the kinds of polls all major candidates, Democrat or Republican, conduct in the course of campaigns.”

Their response is a red herring.

The commonly accepted definition of a push poll is that of a telemarketing call disguised as a public opinion survey. The Bass campaign, rightfully so, denies they engaged in this type of activity.

The state, however, defines a push poll as any call that meets just three criteria: it is in support of, or in opposition to, a candidate for public office; it asks questions that convey information about the character or political record of an opposing candidate; and it is likely to be construed as a survey for an organization acting independent of the candidate.

As Cullen notes, legitimate message polls — presumably including the Bass call in question — routinely meet that criteria. But here’s the thing, push polls are not illegal in New Hampshire. The law only requires that the caller identify the candidate for whom the call is being made. That’s where the Bass campaign went awry.

The original draft of the call script, according to the lawsuit, included the disclosure, “The Tarrance Group wishes to thank you for participating in this survey - which was commissioned and paid for by the Bass Victory Committee … 603-226-6000. Good night.”

But in an email dated Sept. 16, 2010, authorities say Bass’s campaign manager asked: “Could we change the disclaimer at the end to NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) since they are paying for half of it? I’d rather have any issues about ‘push polling’ be blamed on them (sorry Brock), rather than us - especially with the date rape drug question in there.”

As a result of the request by Bass’s campaign, Delaney said the call went out to voters with this disclosure: “The Tarrance Group wishes to thank you for participating in this survey - which was commissioned and paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee … 202-479-7050. Good night.”

Oh, and while the Bass campaign is explaining why their actions, perhaps they’ll also explain how they initially “overlooked” 500 pages of damaging email records subpoenaed by the Attorney General’s office.

On Feb. 1, “after further investigation,” the attorney general’s office issued the campaign a second subpoena “in order to verify the accuracy of prior representations that no correspondence between the campaign and the Tarrance Group could be located.” Five days later, authorities said the Bass campaign turned over 500 pages of email records, including communications between campaign officials and employees at the polling firm.


Vaillancourt: Bye, Bye, O’Brien. Bye, Bye, Clown Prince.

GOP state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt analyzes the latest New Hampshire polling and predicts a 78-seat gain in the House for Democrats. Republicans only chance, he says, is to get rid of the House leadership team.

Bye, bye Bill O’Brien. Bye, bye, Clown Prince (the one who will eternally be remembered for dubbing the Catholic bishop at “pedophile pimp”). Yes, it’s tough to win the Catholic vote after calling the bishop such a name; and the media is sure to remind voters come October.

Republicans only chance might be to jettison D.J. Bettencourt now, but don’t expect that to happen. For now, every day that O’Brien, the Clown Prince, and His Vileness [Deputy Majority Leader Shawn Jasper] remain in control, Democrats stand to pick up more seats.


Poll Finds Support Plummeting for NH GOP & Tea Party

In the past year, support for the New Hampshire GOP legislative agenda has plummeted, House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s favorability rating has declined, and there has been a significant drop in support for the Tea Party.

A new survey from Democratic pollster Benenson Strategy Group found likely voters oppose the agenda of Republicans in the legislature by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin. Last year at this time, voters approved of the agenda by a 49 percent to 38 percent margin. “Notably, nearly one-in-five registered New Hampshire Republicans now opposes the legislative agenda of their own party.”

House Speaker Bill O’Brien, who has championed the agenda, fared no better. As he has become better known by the electorate, O’Brien is less liked. Of the 40 percent of likely voters who could identify O’Brien in May, 2011, six percent had a favorable impression compared to 16 percent with an unfavorable impression. Today, 69 percent of voters can identify him and his net favorability rating has dropped to -14 points (15 percent positive, 29 percent negative).

Support for the Tea Party in New Hampshire continues to drop also. Today, 29 percent say they view the Tea Party favorably, compared to 50 percent who view the Tea Party unfavorably, a net 14 percent drop since the February, 2011 survey. This is consistent with an earlier Suffolk University/7 News tracking poll that also measured a “drastic shift” in Tea Party support among likely GOP primary voters.

Benenson surveyed 600 likely voters in the 2012 general election between January 30 and February 1, 2012. The margin of error is ±4.00%.


N.H. Voters Oppose State Funds for Private Schools

House Bill 1607 and Senate Bill 372 would create a school voucher program granting tax credits to businesses funding scholarships for students to attend private schools, religious schools or home schools.

The Carsey Institute reports that, based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, New Hampshire voters are virtually universal in their opposition to this attack on the state’s public schools.

The survey found there was very little support among New Hampshire voters for using state funds to help students attend private school. Public school parents were very satisfied with their local schools and were even more opposed than all voters to using state money to help students attend private schools.

55 percent of all voters oppose using state funds to help students attend private schools compared to only 23 percent who support it. They oppose using tax credits to help students attend private schools by a 41 percent to 27 percent margin. The opposition is bipartisan. Republicans oppose both measures by 43 percent to 36 percent and 36 percent to 30 percent margins respectively.

Supporters assert that New Hampshire public schools are failing and parents are demanding alternatives — but someone apparently forgot to tell parents.

68 percent of public school parents saying that they are extremely satisfied (six percent), very satisfied (31 percent) or somewhat satisfied (31 percent) with the quality of education in their local schools — more than double the 30 percent who express some level of dissatisfaction.

The WMUR Granite State Poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which interviewed 527 New Hampshire adults between January 25 and February 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.


WMUR Survey: Voters Oppose Two GOP Initiatives

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll surveyed Granite State adults on several high profile issues being debated in the legislature. The results show an electorate at odds with two of the key initiatives being promoted by the House Republican leadership.

  • Opposition to repeal of same-sex marriage is overwhelming

New Hampshire adults oppose repeal of same-sex marriage by a 59 percent to 32 percent margin. Among those who feel strongly about the issue, opponents of repeal outnumber supporters by a 2-to-1 margin with 48 percent strongly opposing repeal compared to just 23 percent who strongly support it. These figures have remained remarkably constant over the past year in earlier surveys from WMUR and Voter Consumer Research.

  • Support for a constitutional amendment to prohibit a state income tax is far short of the required two-thirds majority

New Hampshire voters are evenly divided on a a proposed constitutional amendment to prohibit a state tax on income. 39 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for the amendment, 41 percent would oppose it. The House-passed amendment requires Senate approval before being presented to the voters. A two-thirds majority vote would then be required to amend the state constitution.

  • Granite Staters support voter photo ID legislation

One Republican issue that does appear to have broad support is requiring voters to present photo identification in order to vote. 68 percent expressed support for a voter ID law compared to 24 percent who oppose it. The support crosses partisan lines with majorities among Republicans (87 to 10 percent), Independents (69 to 22 percent) and Democrats (52 to 37 percent ).

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 527 New Hampshire adults were interviewed between January 25 and February 2, 2012 for the survey, which has a +/- 4.3 percent margin of error.


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