Public Policy Polling calls the New Hampshire gubernatorial race a “toss up,” with Democrats Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan both basically tied with Republican Ovide Lamontagne.
In the primary battles, Lamontagne has opened up a wide 53-13 lead over challenger Kevin Smith. Hassan leads Cilley 23-20 but PPP says the Democratic primary “looks pretty wide open” with 57% of voters undecided.
The two major Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading both Republican opponents in head-to-head match-ups. Today’s WMUR Granite State Poll indicates, though, that all four candidates are relatively unknown and large numbers of voters have yet to decide.
Democrat Maggie Hassand leads Ovide Lamontagne among likely voters by 34%-29% margin with 36% undecided and bests Kevin Smith 29%-24% with 46% undecided. Fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley edges Lamontagne 31%-30% with 38% undecided and leads Smith 30%-23% with 47% undecided.
Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center reviews the numbers and concludes, “These candidates are not even very well-known among their own party.” Hassan, Cilley and Smith are unknown to more than 80% of New Hampshire voters. Voters are only slightly more familiar with Lamontagne who is unknown to 54% of voters.
Hassan and Cilley are equally well-known, and well-liked, by Democratic voters. Hassan has a +18% net favorability rating among registered Democrats (20% favorable, 2% unfavorable). Cilley’s favorability rating among Democrats is an almost identical +17% (20% favorable, 3% unfavorable).
Lamontagne has a name recognition advantage over Smith in their battle for the GOP nomination. 39% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Lamontagne compared to 8% who have an unfavorable opinion. Smith is much less well-known, with 9% of Republicans saying they like him and 5% saying they don’t.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
The inability of the Republican majority in the legislature to manipulate the state Attorney General has been a bone of contention for some time now. The latest attempt to spank the AG comes in a committee report studying issues around the collapse of Financial Resources Mortgage, Inc. (FRM).
The committee, chaired by Rep. Ken Weyler and four other Republicans, issued a particularly political report. It criticized Gov. Lynch and the Executive Council and attacked the Attorney General’s office for believing “they are beyond the reach of the Legislature or any other agency.” They believe, the report continues, “that they are the ‘top dog’ and that they are able to make decisions in a vacuum, because they are answerable to no one.”
The committee proposed reining in the Attorney General by having the AG elected by the legislature. This would require a constitutional amendment as the state Constitution calls for the Attorney General to be appointed by the Governor and approved by the Executive Council.
Someone should tell Republican gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith.
Smith, of Litchfield, said if such a bill became law and he was in the corner office, he would sign it.
Constitutional amendments, of course, do not require the governor’s signature. In praising the proposal, Smith ignored the committee’s contention that the Attorney General is currently too independent and “unaccountable.”
“I think that would go a long way toward giving the public some assurance that the attorney general was truly independent,” Smith said.
Tuesday, GOP gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith registered with the New Hampshire Secretary of State as a lobbyist with the National Organization for Marriage (NOM).
NOM, believed to be largely funded by the Mormon and Catholic churches, works to oppose the legalization of civil unions and same-sex marriage and to prohibit same-sex couples from adopting children. The organization was labeled “anti-gay” by the Southern Poverty Law Center for propagating “demonizing propaganda” based on “known falsehoods” and “repeated, groundless name-calling.”
Just two weeks ago, John DiStaso quoted Smith saying “repeal of the state’s same-sex marriage law will not be among his priorities.”
Smith said his lobbying role on the key social issue “is not inconsistent at all” with his campaign focus on jobs and the economy.
The Washington Post’s Rachel Weiner gazes into her crystal ball to project the outcome of a three-way primary battle for the GOP gubernatorial nomination featuring Ovide Lamontagne, Kevin Smith and Ted Gatsas.
The most obvious scenario: Smith will pull tea party votes away from Lamontagne, leaving Gatsas as the nominee. Both Lamontagne and Smith have ties to grassroots conservatives in the state. Gatsas, a relative moderate in the field, would pick up all the non-conservative votes — probably enough to win a three-way primary — while his opponents compete over who has the most tea party credibility.
Another, less likely scenario: Gatsas and Lamontagne split support in their shared home base of Manchester, get into an ugly primary battle and give Smith at least a chance at the nomination.
62% of New Hampshire adults oppose repealing the state law legalizing same-sex marriage. Kevin Smith, Cornerstone Action executive director, casts a blind eye.
“There are a lot dynamics to this issue and it’s not always captured in a poll.”
Smith, a likely GOP gubernatorial candidate who has made opposition to marriage equality the focus of his organization, desperately needs to keep the issue alive to energize his supporters. So with the prospects for legislative repeal slipping away, Smith, in all seriousness, suggests that a non-binding referendum would “put this issue to bed one way or the other.”
“This remains a contentious, emotional issue. … I suspect this issue isn’t going away any time soon. I understand there is no referendum vote in the state, but there’s no reason we couldn’t have a non-binding referendum. We are in the minority of states where people have not been allowed to vote and put this issue to bed one way or the other.”
Politico today named the New Hampshire gubernatorial race as the most competitive race in the nation for the 2011-2012 cycle.
Gov. John Lynch’s long-anticipated decision to pass on a fifth term ensures the Granite State will offer junkies downballot intrigue long after this winter’s presidential primary.
National Democrats, who will have to invest in the state to keep it in their column, are crossing their fingers for a raucous Republican primary.
The article mentions Ovide Lamontagne (“two-time loser”), Kevin Smith (“‘fresh blood’ alternative”) and John Stephen (“newer to the scene than Lamontagne but better known than Smith”) as Republican front runners. Democrats Maggie Hassan, Jackie Cilley and Steve Marchand are described as “testing the waters.”
By a 3-1 vote, a House Judiciary subcommittee approved a bill that would not only repeal the state’s same sex marriage law, but would also make a mockery of civil unions. The new “marriage substitute” offered to same-sex couples would be available to any two adults —including family members — and would offer absolutely no legal protection.
The bill allows a form of civil union that has never existed in the state, open to any two persons. It also contains language that allows any business, individual, school or association to refuse to recognize civil unions, exempting them from state laws that bar discrimination on housing, employment, contracts and grants.
Marriage equality supporters condemned the proposal.
Tyler Deaton of Standing Up for New Hampshire Families, a coalition that supports the gay marriage law, said the bill goes out of its way to discriminate against gays by allowing individuals to treat the unions as invalid if they violate their religious beliefs.
“You can have a civil union, but it’s meaningless,” he said.
Deaton said the bill doesn’t really create civil unions, but instead takes the state back to a time before it had a civil union law.
Not so, said Kevin Smith, Cornerstone Executive Director and likely GOP gubernatorial candidate:
“We think that the amendment passed by the sub-committee today represents a common-sense compromise to what has been a very divisive issue over the last three years. We are hopeful that this amended bill will enjoy bi-partisan support and is a solution that both sides can live with.”
In February, a WMUR Granite State Poll found that only 29% of the state’s adults favor repealing the state’s marriage equality law. 62% expressed support for same-sex marriage.
Marcus Bachmann, the husband of GOP presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann, has come under fire for his faith-based counseling clinic where counselors reportedly “pray away the gay,” claiming they can convert gays to heterosexuals through Christian payer.
This so-called “reparative” or “conversion” therapy has been roundly rejected by all mainstream health and mental health professional organizations as unscientific and dangerous.
While lacking support among mainstream organizations, “ex-gay” therapy does have advocates among some conservative fringe groups. In New Hampshire, one need look no further than Cornerstone Policy Research and its legislative action arm, Cornerstone Action.
On the Cornerstone website, the Helpful Links page provides links to discredited ‘ex-gay’ therapy groups Love Won Out, National Association for Research and Therapy of Homosexuality (NARTH), Exodus International and Parents & Friends of Ex-Gays. And now we learn Kevin Smith, Cornerstone’s executive director, is “thinking seriously” about running for governor. Let the buyer beware.
(h/t: Good As You)
When Cornerstone Executive Director (and potential GOP gubernatorial candidate) Kevin Smith organized a “Defund Planned Parenthood” event, Planned Parenthood supporters outnumbered Cornerstone allies by a 2-1 margin.
Cornerstone Executive Director Kevin Smith organized a press conference and rally yesterday to applaud the Executive Council for cancelling a Planned Parenthood contract that would provide health services for thousands of women. Smith said the Executive Council “correctly read the mood of taxpayers.” All evidence to the contrary.
Approximately two dozen people with Cornerstone walked past approximately twice as many Planned Parenthood supporters and faced them during the press conference.
The audience booed Musgrave, a former member of Congress from Colorado, and one person shouted “liar” after she accused Planned Parenthood of aiding and abetting sex trafficking.
(For the record, the Planned Parenthood sex trafficking allegation has been thoroughly discredited.)
Once again, Cornerstone’s Kevin Smith is a general fighting the last war — attempting to use strategies and tactics of the past to achieve victory in the present.
Last year, Smith attempted to reproduce Lee Atwater’s infamous “Willie Horton” ad that played on racial fears and portrayed Gov. Michael Dukakis as soft on crime. The copycat ad Smith ran against John Lynch in last year’s mid-term election failed to resonate with New Hampshire voters and Lynch coasted to victory.
This year, Smith is attempting to emulate Karl Rove’s 2004 tactics that created an anti-gay backlash against same-sex marriage and helped George W. Bush win reelection.
Cornerstone will ask each Republican presidential candidate to sign a pledge agreeing marriage should be between one man and one woman.
“Why not try to leverage the influence of the candidates to get them to declare their support for traditional marriage?” Smith said. “If you have a candidate saying they’re not willing to oppose same-sex marriage, I think they’ll have a problem. … We have a wide membership list. We’ll certainly let them know.”
But the world has changed since 2004.
[D]uring the most recent nationwide fights over the issue — the Obama administration’s decision not to defend the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in court and to repeal the military’s ban on gays serving openly in the military — most of the field has refrained from seizing the issue.
For a party that once led the charge against gay rights and reaped political advantages from its place in opposition, it’s a notable evolution — and one that perhaps reflects polling data showing increasing popular support for gay marriage, especially among young people.
“It’s a funny thing about change, it moves slowly until it doesn’t,” said GOP strategist John Weaver. “Finely tuned politicians who are looking to the future may get that sooner than other people. We may be getting to that point where it is less and less of a litmus test in our party.”
A progressive perspective on New Hampshire politics and other oddities.
William Tucker is an architect in Portsmouth.
