Larry Sabato: N.H. Congressional Races Both “Coin Flips”

Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, has consistently been one of the nation’s most accurate political prognosticators. He correctly predicted the result of every gubernatorial and U.S. Senate race in 2008 and was one of the first to forecast the 2010 House takeover by Republicans.

In an update to his predictions for the fall’s congressional elections, Sabato has moved New Hampshire’s 1st District race between Frank Guinta and Carol Shea-Porter from “Leans Republican” to “Toss up.” James Pindell has the explanation from Sabato and editor Kyle Kondik.

“[G]iven New Hampshire’s volatile and seemingly always shifting politics, it would not surprise us if an Obama win flipped both seats back to the Democrats in the fall — just like what happened in 2006, when both seats flipped together in a Democratic year. Nor would it surprise us if a Romney win kept both the seats in the GOP column. … New Hampshire looks like a coin-flip state right now at the presidential level — so why shouldn’t its two House seats also be coin flips, at least for now?”

Guilty, Unethical, Is Not Telling All PAC

As Pindell first reported, Congressman Frank Guinta has filed documents with the Federal Election Commission to form a leadership political action committee.

The PAC will allow Guinta to raise additional campaign contributions from individuals and lobbyists. Leadership PAC funds are then generally funneled to other candidates and organizations to win friends and influence people.

The Center for Responsive Politics notes, however, that the rules governing leadership PACs are not strict. The funds can be used to dine in fine restaurants, travel around the country, hire additional staff or lay the groundwork for higher office.

Guinta imaginatively named his PAC, Guinta PAC. As is the norm, the name is an acronym: Getting Us Involved Now Transitioning America PAC.

Given Guinta’s ethical lapses — he was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington — I have another suggestion: Guilty, Unethical, Is Not Telling All PAC.

Quote of the Day: Smells Like Desperation

Running to social issues doesn’t work in New Hampshire (the nation’s second least religious state). Plus, it smells like desperation. (But there are a lot of months to go until November.) Rush Limbaugh may help in certain places and among certain demographics, but New Hampshire independents are not one them.

— James Pindell, WMUR.com Political Director

Frank Guinta’s Lucrative Turkish Connection

One of Pindell’s Questions for the Weekend caught my eye:

Where is that “Turkey,” Frank Guinta, these days? Is he in New Hampshire?

A little poking around confirmed that, yes, Guinta has been in Turkey — as a guest of the Turkish Coalition of America.

The Turkish Coalition of America (TCA) on Feb. 14th wrapped up its twelfth Congressional Delegation to Turkey. … The delegation, comprised of Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) and three senior Congressional staffers … visited Istanbul and Ankara during their four-day visit.

Ironically, when Guinta campaigned for office, he pledged to co-sponsor an Armenian genocide resolution, which would condemn the 1915 slaughter of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide. His promise to co-sponsor the resolution, which is opposed by the TCA, secured the endorsement of the Armenian National Committee of America.

In his response to the ANCA’s 2010 Congressional Candidate Questionnaire, Guinta pledged to co-sponsor the Armenian Genocide Resolution and oppose any kind of historical commission that might be established to question this crime against humanity.

Guinta’s Turkish romance began soon after his election to the House. He joined the Caucus on US Turkish Relations & Turkish Americans, which is sponsored by the TCA, and was rewarded with a $5,000 campaign donation from Yalcin Ayasli, the New Hampshire entrepreneur who founded the TCA. Ayasli has deep pockets. During the 2008 election cycle, he and his family gave $424,050 to politicians and political organizations, making them the nation’s top individual contributors.

Guinta has also received $17,000 in PAC contributions from BAE Systems, a defense contractor with business interests in Turkey who has lobbied against an Armenian genocide resolution.

Last month, Guinta was one of 13 members of Congress to attend a reception celebrating the opening of a new office for the Turkish Coalition of America and the Turkish Cultural Foundation.

Guinta, pictured at the TCA/TCF reception with Yalcin Ayasli, Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) and Lincoln McCurdy, TCA President.

For the record, Guinta is not a co-sponsor of U.S. House Resolution 304, the Affirmation of the United States Record on the Armenian Genocide Resolution, which was introduced on June 14, 2011.

Great Moments in Journalism: Limiting Modifiers

James Pindell put Executive Councilor Ray Burton’s fundraiser in perspective by comparing it to the just-announced quarterly fundraising totals for the 1st District Democratic congressional race with the headline, “Burton Raises More In 1 Night Than Congressional Candidates Raise In 3 Months.”

There was just one problem: Carol Shea-Porter raised $87,552 for the three month period, significantly more than Burton’s $75,000 evening.

The $75,000 haul … is almost more than nearly all Democratic candidates for the First Congressional District raised in the last three months of 2011. [emphasis added]

Quote of the Day: Kiss of Death

This week, House Speaker Bill O’Brien endorsed Newt Gingrich for president. Recently, he lost every special election for the House, and he backed Bob Giuda for Congress and Jack Kimball for Governor.

— James Pindell, WMUR.com Political Director

O’Brien’s Latest Right-to-Work Gambit

James Pindell suggests having GOP presidential candidates address the New Hampshire House next week could be an elaborate ploy by Speaker O’Brien.

When session is gaveled in at 10 a.m. on Wednesday, the 400 member House of Republicans and Democrats will take up regular business as well as hear from Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Georgia businessman Herman Cain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

The whole parade of candidates could also be a ruse though. If Democrats leave unimpressed with the candidates, House Speaker Bill O’Brien could call for a veto override vote of the Right To Work bill.

Quote of the Day: Let’s Go to South Carolina

“Why would presidential primary candidates come into state with this going on? Who do you speak to without making someone angry, especially if you don’t have a good lay of the land? If I were running a campaign, I would say, ‘Let’s go to South Carolina for a while until this whole New Hampshire thing washes out.’”

— Jerry DeLemus, Granite State Liberty PAC chairman and Kimball supporter, on fight to oust Jack Kimball as New Hampshire Republican party chair.

h/t: @JamesPindell

EMILY’s List Endorses Kuster in NH-02 Race

Ann Kuster, Democratic candidate for Congress in New Hampshire’s 2nd District, is one of five congressional candidates endorsed by Emily’s List for 2012. President Stephanie Schriock says the five represent districts that are key to winning back the House in November.

“These five strong Democratic women are running fantastic campaigns, getting voters energized and are eager to bring their voices to Washington. EMILY’s List couldn’t be more thrilled to throw our full support behind them to help make 2012 another ‘Year of the Woman.’ “

Kuster also received the coveted endorsement in her 2010 race. James Pindell notes the group gave her hundreds of thousands of dollars through its coordinated donors and had a big impact on her campaign. Last quarter, Kuster outraised her likely Republican opponent, Charlie Bass.

If It’s Tuesday, This Must Be a GOP Facebook Controversy

What is it with Granite State Republicans and Facebook?

James Pindell reports that Newmarket Republican Chair Joe Barton has refused state Chair Jack Kimball’s call for his resignation. The demand followed Barton’s Facebook posting that offered a $1500 bounty for anyone willing to run in a primary against Republican state Sen. Sharon Carson.

Barton made the comment on the New Hampshire Republican Party’s Facebook group. The comment has since been removed by the party. Kimball said he asked Barton to resign his position this morning. He called Barton’s comment “inappropriate” and “improper” and said that Barton has been banned from commenting further on the Facebook group.

Earlier this year, police were called when Barton threatened Carson over her opposition to right-to-work legislation. Kimball then refused to call for Barton’s resignation. Barton, an early tea party activist, worked in Kimball’s gubernatorial campaign. At a house party celebrating his surprise election as party chair in January, Kimball acknowledged Barton as his “black ops guy.”

This is just the latest in a series of embarrassing Facebook episodes for the New Hampshire GOP. The most notable was House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt’s Facebook posting that referred to Catholic Bishop John McCormack as a “pedophile pimp.”

Why Don’t Reps Push Back Against the “Bully”?

Stories of GOP state representatives being threatened and browbeaten by Speaker O’Brien continue to leak out. A few — Lee Quandt, Matt Quandt, Tim Copeland — have publicly fought back. James Pindell asks why more haven’t resisted?

[W]hy are people here such wimps? Think about it for a minute. You are a state Representative making a $100 a year. You believe what you believe and then someone disagrees and yells at you. This person isn’t your boss. This person is some elected leader of a party. You don’t serve them, you serve the people of your district. They can’t fire you and they really don’t have many ways to punish you….

The fact that we so rarely have push back against the “bully” may be proof we aren’t mean enough.

They could take a lesson from GOP Rep. Susan Emerson. She just filed an Legislative Service Request (LSR) for a bill “prohibiting bullying in the state house and legislative office building.”