PPP Poll: Dems Have “Pretty Good Chance to Win”

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter leads Rep. Frank Guinta by a 47%-43% margin in the latest survey from Public Policy Polling, an 11-point swing from last summer when Guinta had a 48%-41% advantage in the 1st District race.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Congressman Charlie Bass and Democratic challenger Ann Kuster are tied at 42%. The race is essentially unchanged from last summer’s survey.

The old adage goes that voters hate Congress, but like their Congressman. In New Hampshire though they don’t appear to like either. Democrats have a pretty good chance at winning back the two seats they lost there in 2010 this fall.

Larry Sabato: N.H. Congressional Races Both “Coin Flips”

Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, has consistently been one of the nation’s most accurate political prognosticators. He correctly predicted the result of every gubernatorial and U.S. Senate race in 2008 and was one of the first to forecast the 2010 House takeover by Republicans.

In an update to his predictions for the fall’s congressional elections, Sabato has moved New Hampshire’s 1st District race between Frank Guinta and Carol Shea-Porter from “Leans Republican” to “Toss up.” James Pindell has the explanation from Sabato and editor Kyle Kondik.

“[G]iven New Hampshire’s volatile and seemingly always shifting politics, it would not surprise us if an Obama win flipped both seats back to the Democrats in the fall — just like what happened in 2006, when both seats flipped together in a Democratic year. Nor would it surprise us if a Romney win kept both the seats in the GOP column. … New Hampshire looks like a coin-flip state right now at the presidential level — so why shouldn’t its two House seats also be coin flips, at least for now?”

Guinta Praised by Group Working to Privatize Medicare

Congressman Frank Guinta has earned accolades from a front group working to privatize Medicare.

The Healthcare Leadership Council (HLC) is comprised of the CEOs of the country’s biggest insurers, drug companies, hospital chains and medical device manufacturers. Tuesday, at an award ceremony in Washington, the group honored Guinta as a “Champion of Healthcare Innovation.”

The HLC is notorious for the fear-mongering campaign it ran against the Clinton health care reform proposal in 1993. Wendell Potter, former head of public relations for CIGNA, writes that the HLC is now leading the charge to move forward with the Ryan plan and privatize Medicare — “albeit with a few tweaks and a new sales pitch to make it seem more consumer-friendly.”

While Ryan would move all Medicare beneficiaries into a privatized system in one fell swoop, the HLC’s plan would do it more gradually. It would, in the words of the press release, “create a new ‘Medicare Exchange’ in which private plans would compete on the basis of cost, quality and value.”

But buyer beware. Rest assured that the HLC is far more interested in the special interests of its member companies and organizations than in what is in your best interests. And the very existence of the HLC shows why it has been so difficult to get Congress to enact comprehensive health care reform. The executives who fund the HLC want first and foremost to preserve their profits and protect their incomes.

Guinta has hailed the Ryan plan, which would replace Medicare with vouchers that beneficiaries would use to buy coverage from private insurance, as “a bipartisan, practical approach to safeguarding Medicare for future generations.” It’s no surprise that the HLC and Guinta are allies — nor that he has received over $180,000 in campaign contributions from the insurance industry, health professionals and hospitals.

Carol Shea-Porter: Guinta Hopes Voters Won’t Notice

New Hampshire Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass cynically voted to finance an extension of the current interest rate on student loans by raiding a public health fund rather than supporting the Senate version that would close a tax loophole benefiting the wealthy.

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter says they are hoping voters won’t notice.

Congressman Frank Guinta and his party first refused to vote to keep student interest rates at 3.4% for college students.

Political pressure from Democrats, students, and middle class families became too great, so Congressman Guinta raided the preventive health fund, that pays for screenings for breast cancer and cervical cancer among other things, to make up for the money that would have been collected from higher interest rates.

Congressmen Frank Guinta and Paul Ryan, instead of taking away tax loopholes for millionaires, are shifting resources from health screenings to students, hoping voters won’t notice. Voters already have noticed.

WMUR Granite State Poll: Shea-Porter, Kuster Lead

Updated: April 26, 2012, 6:25 p.m. 

Democratic challengers Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are leading in their likely Congressional rematches with Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll,  Shea-Porter leads Guinta 44%-39%, with 16% undecided. Kuster leads Bass by a 40%-39% margin, with 20% undecided.  

Guinta’s popularity is down slightly from February. 31% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 28% view him unfavorably. Absence has made the heart grow fonder for Shea-Porter who now owns a +13% net favorability rating, a 20-point gain from two years ago. 43% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion.

Bass’ favorability ratings are above water for the first time since his election. 39% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 36% view him unfavorably. 26% have a favorable opinion of Kuster with 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +13%, compared to Bass’ +3%, but her name recognition has dropped since the 2010 election.

Both sitting Congressmen have had challenges since their election. Each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Guinta was ranked as the 31st most conservative member of Congress by National Journal, more conservative than arch-conservative Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and subsamples of 230 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.5% and 251 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.

Congressman Frank Guinta: All Hat, No Cattle

Today we learned that last year, Congressman Frank Guinta spent more taxpayers’ money on franked mail than any of the other 434 House members. The Bakersfield Californian first reported that Guinta spent $164,650 on postage, several times more than the average of $33,460.

The franking privilege allows House members to send mail to their constituents using tax funds for postage. It is part of the allowance each House member receives for office expenses, staff salaries, travel and other costs. A detailed record of the expenses are available to the public in the Statement of Disbursements of the House.

Clearly Guinta is operating a well-funded marketing machine. Along with his extraordinary franked mail expenses, Guinta spent $116,756 on printing and reproduction costs, ranking him 8th in the House in that category.

But Guinta brags that he did not spend all of his $1.4 million office allowance. So if he outspent every other member on mail and printing expenses, how did he make up the difference? Guinta saved money by not hiring staff. For the year, Guinta spent just $743,198 on personnel compensation, $200,000 less than the average Representative and ranking him 418 among the 435 members.

That, in a nutshell, highlights Guinta’s approach to the office, which is to devote money and resources to marketing rather than legislative expertise and constituent service. And it might explain some of those episodes like his embarrassing display of ineptitude in a committee hearing with Elizabeth Warren.

Q1 Fundraising: Shea-Porter Trails Guinta

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter raised over $101,000 in campaign contributions for the first quarter of 2012, nearly $80,000 shy of the total raised by Congressman Frank Guinta.

Shea-Porter, who refuses to accept corporate PAC money, essentially matched Guinta in individual contributions but came up well short in donations from political action committees.

With the departure of primary rival Joanne Dowdell, Shea-Porter now has a clear path to the Democratic nomination, but faces a decided financial disadvantage in her rematch with Guinta. Shea-Porter reported having $183,159 cash on hand at the end of the quarter compared to Guinta’s $674,747.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $  31,115
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $  24,353
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $  24,821
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  21,000
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 101,289
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 183,159

Q1 Fundraising: Guinta Raises Over $180,000

Congressman Frank Guinta raised over $180,000 in campaign contributions for the first quarter of 2012, $50,000 more than he raised last quarter. He reported having $674,747 cash on hand at the end of the quarter for his likely rematch with Democrat Carol Shea-Porter.

$77,741, 43% of his total, came from political action committees. $17,750 of that was from insurance industry PACs, perhaps as a reward for his vote to eliminate the Independent Payment Advisory Board. Guinta’s lucrative Turkish connection continued to pay off. Guinta received $9,000 in contributions from the Turkish Coalition USA PAC and three defense contractors with Turkish interests. Other well known PACs contributing to Guinta this quarter included the National Rifle Association, the infamous KOCHPAC, and Kelly Ayotte’s leadership PAC.

70% of Guinta’s $95,732 in itemized individual contributions came from New Hampshire residents.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $  62,600
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $  33,132
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $   6,860
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  77,741
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 180,333
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 674,747

Guinta: I Actually Voted For it Before I Voted Against It

Today Congressman Frank Guinta wrote leaders of the House and Senate urging them to work together to prevent $1 trillion in automatic, across-the-board defense cuts. Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter correctly points out that Guinta voted for the bill that could result in the cuts he says he now opposes.

“Congressman Frank Guinta is once again trying to hide his irresponsible record on defense cuts.

“He first led our country to the brink of default by refusing to raise the debt ceiling until the last second, causing a downgrade in our credit rating and insisting on the tea party Republican provision that there be a super committee that must cut defense and domestic programs if they cannot compromise.

“Republicans refused to compromise, and now he asks the government to refuse to carry out the blanket defense cuts he voted for. His uncompromising extremism and irresponsible votes hurt defense and national security, and I worry about the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.”

ICYMI: Most Read Posts for March, 2012 

In case you missed them the first time around, here are the three Miscellany Blue posts for the month of March that were most popular with our readers:

1. Hall of Shame: 85 Vote to Legalize Discrimination

85 New Hampshire lawmakers voted to provide a religious exemption from the state’s civil rights laws for business owners and their employees.

2. Just How Extreme is Frank Guinta?

National Journal ranks Congressman Frank Guinta as the 31st most conservative member of Congress, more conservative than Tea Party favorites Joe Walsh, Allen West and Michele Bachmann.

3. Speaker O’Brien’s Female Ventriloquist Dummy

The words House Deputy Speaker Pamela Tucker uttered to defend allowing employers to exclude birth control insurance coverage were all written, and previously delivered, by men.

Sierra Club: Guinta Fails to Protect the Environment

You already know that New Hampshire Congressman Frank Guinta is more extreme than Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann. So it probably doesn’t surprise you to learn that when the Sierra Club rated members of Congress on their votes for critical clean water legislation, Guinta was 0 for 12. That’s a failing score in anybody’s grade book.

• Prevents the Interior Department from updating rules to protect streams from the destructive practice of mountaintop removal mining. FAIL
• Blocks efforts to clean up the Chesapeake Bay. Fail
• Prevents the EPA from protecting Florida’s waters from harmful algal blooms, dead zones, fish kills and declines in wildlife habitat. FAIL
• Stops the EPA from protecting Appalachia’s environment and the health of its residents from mountaintop removal mining. FAIL
• Prevents the EPA from vetoing egregious projects that destroy streams and wetlands and threaten public drinking water supplies and wildlife. FAIL
• Stops the strongest safeguards on coal ash disposal, ignoring best available science and leaving communities at risk. FAIL
• Drastically cuts funds from critical environmental programs and endangers public health and the environment. FAIL
• Allows for pesticides to be applied directly to our waterways, endangering public health and surrounding ecosystems. FAIL
• Stops EPA actions to ensure safe drinking water for 117 million Americans and protect streams, wetlands and other U.S. waters. FAIL
• Allows for restoration work to continue in places like the Chesapeake Bay, Long Island Sound and the Great Lakes. FAIL
• Continues legal safeguards for waters that provide economic benefits and flood protection. FAIL
• Guts the Clean Water Act by replacing federal protections with inconsistent, state-by-state enforcement. FAIL

New Congressional Redistricting Plan on the Way?

3/29/12 UPDATE: This plan was approved by the state Senate in a voice vote and now goes to the House.

John DiStaso reports that Reps. Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta have ended their behind-the-scenes tug-of-war and agreed on a Congressional redistricting plan.

The proposal would move Sanborton (R+1), Tilton (EVEN) and Campton (D+5) from Bass’ 2nd District to Guinta’s 1st District. Deerfield (R+6), Northwood (R+1) and Center Harbor (R+2) would be transferred from the 1st District to the 2nd District.

Bass would be giving up three towns that Obama carried in 2008 by 581 votes, a 55%-44% margin. McCain won the three towns Bass would receive in exchange by 73 votes, a 50%-49% margin. 

Based on the 2008 presidential vote, Bass would net about 500 additional Republican votes in his Democratic-leaning district. Bass won his seat in 2010 beating Democrat Ann Kuster by just 3550 votes.

The plan, writes DiStaso, will be introduced on the Senate floor later today.