PPP Poll: Dems Have “Pretty Good Chance to Win”

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter leads Rep. Frank Guinta by a 47%-43% margin in the latest survey from Public Policy Polling, an 11-point swing from last summer when Guinta had a 48%-41% advantage in the 1st District race.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Congressman Charlie Bass and Democratic challenger Ann Kuster are tied at 42%. The race is essentially unchanged from last summer’s survey.

The old adage goes that voters hate Congress, but like their Congressman. In New Hampshire though they don’t appear to like either. Democrats have a pretty good chance at winning back the two seats they lost there in 2010 this fall.

Carol Shea-Porter: Guinta Hopes Voters Won’t Notice

New Hampshire Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass cynically voted to finance an extension of the current interest rate on student loans by raiding a public health fund rather than supporting the Senate version that would close a tax loophole benefiting the wealthy.

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter says they are hoping voters won’t notice.

Congressman Frank Guinta and his party first refused to vote to keep student interest rates at 3.4% for college students.

Political pressure from Democrats, students, and middle class families became too great, so Congressman Guinta raided the preventive health fund, that pays for screenings for breast cancer and cervical cancer among other things, to make up for the money that would have been collected from higher interest rates.

Congressmen Frank Guinta and Paul Ryan, instead of taking away tax loopholes for millionaires, are shifting resources from health screenings to students, hoping voters won’t notice. Voters already have noticed.

WMUR Granite State Poll: Shea-Porter, Kuster Lead

Updated: April 26, 2012, 6:25 p.m. 

Democratic challengers Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are leading in their likely Congressional rematches with Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll,  Shea-Porter leads Guinta 44%-39%, with 16% undecided. Kuster leads Bass by a 40%-39% margin, with 20% undecided.  

Guinta’s popularity is down slightly from February. 31% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 28% view him unfavorably. Absence has made the heart grow fonder for Shea-Porter who now owns a +13% net favorability rating, a 20-point gain from two years ago. 43% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion.

Bass’ favorability ratings are above water for the first time since his election. 39% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 36% view him unfavorably. 26% have a favorable opinion of Kuster with 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +13%, compared to Bass’ +3%, but her name recognition has dropped since the 2010 election.

Both sitting Congressmen have had challenges since their election. Each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Guinta was ranked as the 31st most conservative member of Congress by National Journal, more conservative than arch-conservative Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and subsamples of 230 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.5% and 251 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.

Q1 Fundraising: Bass Falls Further Behind Kuster

2nd District Congressman Charlie Bass fell further behind challenger Ann Kuster in fundraising last quarter. Bass came up $83,000 short, raising $269,000 for the quarter to Kuster’s $352,000. Bass reported having $790,00 cash on hand at the end of the quarter, well shy of Kuster’s $1,032,000.

Nearly two-thirds of Bass’ contributions ($174,000) came from political action committees. Corporate PACs that have now donated the maximum $10,000 for the 2012 election cycle include Alston & Bird, Altria Group, AT&T, California Dairies, Consumer Electronics Associates, Corning, Deloitte, DirecTV Group, Fluor Corporation, International Academy of Compounding Pharmacists, United Technologies, Verizon and Wellpoint.

58% of Bass’ itemized contributions from individuals were from New Hampshire residents, including $5,000 from former governor Craig Benson. Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s leadership PAC also kicked in another $5,000 this quarter.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $   52,160
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $   38,150
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $    4,273
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  174,151
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $        0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $        0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  268,734
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  790,416

Bass Assailed over Vote for Ryan Budget

At a town hall meeting in Claremont, Congressman Charlie Bass faced a hostile crowd of constituents over his vote for the Ryan budget plan. His response? Let’s call it something else.

In Claremont, many said that they were worried that Bass wanted to lower taxes on the wealthy. They worried about his association not with Romney but with Ryan, the author of the Republican budget.

Bass voted for Ryan’s budget plan, which has helped to make Ryan a Republican hero, and target for Democratic criticism.

At one point during the Claremont meeting, Bass seemed uncomfortable with Ryan’s prominence. When asked about the Ryan budget, Bass said, “I hate to call it that. It’s the Republican budget in Congress.”

On Push Polls, Red Herrings and Missing Email Records

Last week, the state’s attorney general filed a civil suit against Congressman Charlie Bass’ campaign for failing to identify itself as the sponsor of a “push poll” during the 2010 campaign.

“The poll in question was a legitimate message testing survey, not a push poll,” claimed Bass spokesman Scott Tranchemontagne. Former New Hampshire GOP chair Fergus Cullen echoed his defense, “He appears to have conducted a standard poll of 400 New Hampshire voters,” wrote Cullen, “no different in nature from the kinds of polls all major candidates, Democrat or Republican, conduct in the course of campaigns.”

Their response is a red herring.

The commonly accepted definition of a push poll is that of a telemarketing call disguised as a public opinion survey. The Bass campaign, rightfully so, denies they engaged in this type of activity.

The state, however, defines a push poll as any call that meets just three criteria: it is in support of, or in opposition to, a candidate for public office; it asks questions that convey information about the character or political record of an opposing candidate; and it is likely to be construed as a survey for an organization acting independent of the candidate.

As Cullen notes, legitimate message polls — presumably including the Bass call in question — routinely meet that criteria. But here’s the thing, push polls are not illegal in New Hampshire. The law only requires that the caller identify the candidate for whom the call is being made. That’s where the Bass campaign went awry.

The original draft of the call script, according to the lawsuit, included the disclosure, “The Tarrance Group wishes to thank you for participating in this survey - which was commissioned and paid for by the Bass Victory Committee … 603-226-6000. Good night.”

But in an email dated Sept. 16, 2010, authorities say Bass’s campaign manager asked: “Could we change the disclaimer at the end to NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) since they are paying for half of it? I’d rather have any issues about ‘push polling’ be blamed on them (sorry Brock), rather than us - especially with the date rape drug question in there.”

As a result of the request by Bass’s campaign, Delaney said the call went out to voters with this disclosure: “The Tarrance Group wishes to thank you for participating in this survey - which was commissioned and paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee … 202-479-7050. Good night.”

Oh, and while the Bass campaign is explaining why their actions, perhaps they’ll also explain how they initially “overlooked” 500 pages of damaging email records subpoenaed by the Attorney General’s office.

On Feb. 1, “after further investigation,” the attorney general’s office issued the campaign a second subpoena “in order to verify the accuracy of prior representations that no correspondence between the campaign and the Tarrance Group could be located.” Five days later, authorities said the Bass campaign turned over 500 pages of email records, including communications between campaign officials and employees at the polling firm.

Grover Norquist Greasing the Skids for Bass Primary?

Is Grover Norquist greasing the skids for a conservative Republican to challenge Rep. Charlie Bass in a GOP primary for the 2nd District Congressional seat?

For the second time in recent months, the godfather of the “Taxpayer Protection Pledge” has thrown his weight around the New Hampshire political world.

Yesterday, Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform released a statement blasting Bass for his vote on the Simpson-Bowles Budget Substitute.

—Why did Congressman Bass vote for a budget that raises taxes by $2 trillion and contains phony and fraudulent spending cuts?—

WASHINGTON, March 29, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — The following release is being issued by Americans for Tax Reform:

On Wednesday night, Congressman Charlie Bass (R-N.H.) voted for a budget which calls for nearly $2 trillion in tax increases and contains phony and fraudulent spending cuts. As one of only 38 Congressmen in the 435-member U.S. House of Representatives to do so, Congressman Bass should answer to his constituents as to why he supports this budget.

What makes this noteworthy is that Bass appears to be the only one of the 38 Congressmen who voted for the Budget Substitute to be targeted by ATR.

As to who might be the beneficiary of Norquist’s muscle, well, we know Norquist is a fan of state House Speaker Bill O’Brien.

“The [New Hampshire] legislature’s Republican leadership has cut taxes and reduced spending, balancing New Hampshire’s budget while maintaining the state’s status as the most prosperous and free in New England,” continued Norquist.

And it’s not the first time that Norquist has gotten his hands dirty in New Hampshire politics. Last year, Norquist attempted to rescue O’Brien in his struggle to pass Right to Work legislation by luring away an opponent with an all-expense-paid trip to Washington on the day of the showdown vote.

Just sayin’.

New Congressional Redistricting Plan on the Way?

3/29/12 UPDATE: This plan was approved by the state Senate in a voice vote and now goes to the House.

John DiStaso reports that Reps. Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta have ended their behind-the-scenes tug-of-war and agreed on a Congressional redistricting plan.

The proposal would move Sanborton (R+1), Tilton (EVEN) and Campton (D+5) from Bass’ 2nd District to Guinta’s 1st District. Deerfield (R+6), Northwood (R+1) and Center Harbor (R+2) would be transferred from the 1st District to the 2nd District.

Bass would be giving up three towns that Obama carried in 2008 by 581 votes, a 55%-44% margin. McCain won the three towns Bass would receive in exchange by 73 votes, a 50%-49% margin. 

Based on the 2008 presidential vote, Bass would net about 500 additional Republican votes in his Democratic-leaning district. Bass won his seat in 2010 beating Democrat Ann Kuster by just 3550 votes.

The plan, writes DiStaso, will be introduced on the Senate floor later today.

Bass Targeted in “Medicare March Madness” Campaign

2nd District Congressman Charlie Bass is accused of choosing millionaires over Medicare for his “Medicare March Madness” brackets in a campaign launched today by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Politico reports the Medicare March Madness campaign includes automated phone calls that will patch voters through to Bass’ office, phone banks manned by grassroots supporters, and a new online Medicare Action Center: MedicareMadness2012.com.

Phone script running against Bass:

“Hi, this is Anne from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee calling about Congressman Charlie Bass and House Republicans’ newest scheme to end Medicare.

“Republicans in Washington have a new budget that chooses millionaires over Medicare. One independent analysis found that the plan would ‘shift substantial costs to beneficiaries’ and ‘lead to the demise of traditional Medicare.’

“Congressman Charlie Bass has the wrong priorities… We all agree Washington needs to cut spending, but it should be done the right way, not on the backs of seniors.

Press 1 to be connected to Congressman Bass’s office and tell him to protect Medicare for seniors, not tax breaks for Millionaires.”

Roll Call: Bass “Among the Most Imperiled”

Roll Call lists 2nd District Rep. Charlie Bass as one of the ten most vulnerable members of Congress in his bid for re-election.

After riding the Democratic wave out of office in 2006 and then riding the GOP wave back in 2010, Bass is no stranger to competitive races. The question is whether the affable lawmaker can stay on his board when the water is flat. Both 2006 and 2010 were midterm elections, and Bass will have the drag of the presidential race in a Democratic district to contend with in November. Democrats have a strong recruit in Ann McLane Kuster — who probably would have won last cycle if not for the wave conditions.

Bass and Guinta are in the House! (of Scandal)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a new web site today featuring Congressional Republicans who are embroiled in scandals and ethics violations. It’s no surprise that, once again, New Hampshire Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass made the list!

HouseOfScandal.com will feature a different Republican scandal each month. (Yes, for $19.95, you too can be the proud owner of a Corrupt Republican of the Month calendar.) The May, 2011 entry highlights Guinta’s infamous “mystery bank account” that appeared soon after the press questioned the source of funds that Guinta used to loan money to his campaign.

When large amounts of money go missing, you know a scandal is just around the corner – and it’s no different in Congressman Frank Guinta’s case.

Not to be outdone by his fellow Granite Stater, Bass follows as Mr. June. Bass’ lobbying on behalf of a company owned by his nephew, New England Wood Pellet, is featured.

In June, a previously unreleased and newly discovered letter provides further evidence that Bass had arranged a meeting to promote a tax rebate program that would have benefited his nephew’s company, New England Wood Pellet, in which Bass made a $500,000 investment.

“Each month it seems another scandal-plagued Republican is revealed,” said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. “Republicans’ top priorities are their special interest allies, ultra-wealthy campaign contributors, their campaign treasuries and their personal bank accounts — not the best interest of middle-class families and seniors.”

N.H. Congressional Redistricting Plan Released

UPDATE: The PVI for the town of Merrimack was originally misidentified. The correct PVI for Merrimack is R+4.

New Hampshire has been one of only two states (along with Kansas) still dragging her feet in the Congressional redistricting process. Gumming the works has been a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war between Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass.

James Pindell writes that Bass has been pushing to make CD2 more Republican by adding Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow to his district in exchange for more Democratic-leaning towns including Plymouth and areas further north. “House and Senate leaders don’t want any dramatic change, nor does Guinta,” says Pindell.

It looks like Guinta won. Last Wednesday, writes Rep. Steve Vaillancourt, a House subcommittee on redistricting voted 7-3 to accept a “behind closed doors plan.” The “revised Mirski/Bates Proposal” (Amendment 1162h) rebuffs Bass’ effort to shift Republican voters to CD2. In fact, if this plan is adopted, his district will become slightly less Republican.

The plan moves seven reliably Republican towns, including Atkinson (R+9), Loudon (R+5) and Epsom (R+6) from CD2 to CD1 in exchange for Merrimack (R+4) and the very small towns of New Hampton (R+1) and Hart’s Location (D+4).

Using the 2008 presidential voting as a benchmark, CD2 would become slightly more Democratic (and CD1 slightly more Republican) than it is today. President Obama carried CD2 by 46,325 votes (and CD1 by 21,967 votes). He carried the towns making up the redistricted CD2 by 47,110 votes, an additional 785 Democratic votes.

CD1
Incumbent: Rep. Frank Guinta (R)
Current PVI: EVEN, Proposed PVI: EVEN
Adds Allenstown (EVEN), Atkinson (R+9), Chichester (R+3), Epsom (R+6), Loudon (R+5), Pittsfield (R+5), Shelburne (EVEN). Removes Harts Location (D+4), Merrimack (R+4), New Hampton (R+1).

CD2
Incumbent: Rep. Charlie Bass (R)
Current PVI: D+3, Proposed PVI: D+3
Adds Harts Location (D+4), Merrimack (R+4), New Hampton (R+1). Removes Allenstown (EVEN), Atkinson (R+9), Chichester (R+3), Epsom (R+6), Loudon (R+5), Pittsfield (R+5), Shelburne (EVEN).