Yes, it’s true; the Senate is blocking the O’Brien agenda, almost as if the Senate is ashamed of what the House has done, almost as if the Senate is trying to signal to the electorate, “Don’t blame us for what the O’Brienites are forcing through the House.”
Even as Republican senators strive mightily to distance themselves from O’Brien’s silliness, one cannot be sure the voters won’t turn Republican senators out just as quickly as they do Republican House members.
Thus, a new dynamic in play at the State House.
It’s called—how far can we get away from Bill O’Brien.
— GOP state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt on the dynamics between the state Senate and House Speaker Bill O’Brien
The state Senate continues to swat away the frivolous, the extreme and the downright wacky legislation sent its way by the House. The latest House bill killed by the Senate is House Bill 628, which would have mandated a state database to track and review alleged abuses by federal airport security.
HB 628 began life as the infamous “Don’t Touch My Junk” bill in which TSA agents could have been charged with sexual assault and placed on the sex offender registry for touching or viewing a person’s breasts or genitals.
Free Stater Rep. Andrew Manuse sponsored the bill and defended it writing, “When a government official can conduct a body cavity search for no other reason than ‘a person bought an airplane ticket,’ it is clear that we do not have liberty.”
HB 628 was championed by House Speaker Bill O’Brien who declared, “Our citizens should not be forced to have their rights trampled just to board an airplane or to work at an airport.”
Republican Sen. Jim Raucsh disagreed but was diplomatic. The bill, he said, “would place local and state law enforcement in an adversarial position to the federal agents. Police do not want to be in that situation.”
The odds of state House Speaker Bill O’Brien being back in the Speaker’s chair next year are “close to zero,” writes GOP Rep. Steve Vaillancourt. Vaillancourt outlines three possible scenarios, all of which would result in O’Brien’s defeat:
Scenario number one — Democrats take control and elect either Terie Norelli or David Campbell Speaker. … I would rate the odds of a Democratic takeover at about even right now.
Scenario number two — Democrats pick up 70-80 seats so that the new House is something in the range of 220 Republicans and 180 Democrats. Certainly the 180 Democrats would make a coalition of 40 or 50 Anybody But O’Brien Republicans … to place a different Republican … in the Speaker’s chair.
Scenario number three — Let’s say it’s 205 Republicans and 195 Democrats. Under that scenario, we could see a minority Speaker. Certainly five or ten Republicans … would be willing to join Democrats in electing a Democratic Speaker.
A fourth scenario, in which Republicans maintain 250 or 260 seats and re-elect O’Brien, has a snowball’s chance in hell, concludes Vaillancourt.
GOP state Rep. Lee Quandt, one of House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s most vocal critics, announced he is “testing the waters” for a run at the House Speakership.
Last year, O’Brien removed Quandt from the House Finance Committee after he voted against the state budget. Quandt has accused O’Brien of bringing down the New Hampshire Republican Party and routinely refers to the Speaker as “Bully O’Brien.”
The Exeter lawmaker told the Portsmouth Herald that he expects a “wide-open race” as he predicts 100 of the state’s 300 GOP representatives will lose their bids for re-election.
“It’s time to put up or shut up,” Quandt said. “Since the speaker has thrown his name out to run again, I thought it would make for an interesting conversation.”
“I’m hearing some very good encouragement and I think there are a number of representatives that realize we need a change and we have to bring some respect back into the House and the process,” he said.
Today, the state Senate Public and Municipal Affairs Committee voted to send House Bill 1546 to Interim Study, the functional equivalent of dispatching mail to the dead letter office.
The bill, which would allow employers to exclude birth control from prescription drug coverage, was championed by House Speaker Bill O’Brien and the GOP leadership. NARAL’s Elizabeth Hager is hopeful that the vote signals “a turning tide in the War on New Hampshire Women.”
“98% of women will use at least one form of contraception in their life. Birth control coverage shouldn’t be controversial—it’s preventive; it saves health care dollars and it’s plain common sense. We applaud the Committee’s recommendation and hope the full Senate body will heed its advice and reject HB 1546 as an attack on women’s basic healthcare.”
The bill now moves to the full Senate for a final vote.
State House Speaker Bill O’Brien ended speculation that he might be seeking higher office this year and announced his candidacy for re-election as state representative and Speaker of the House.
Former House Speaker Gene Chandler and Finance Vice Chair Lynne Ober, both of whom reportedly have their eye on the speakership should O’Brien falter, are among the co-chairs of his re-election campaign.
New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley, was not impressed. “As Speaker, Bill O’Brien has pursued a radical agenda: cutting funding for higher education in half, cutting health care for seniors and children, pushing for guns in college dorm rooms, as well as the State House, and trying to cut access to contraception for women,” said Buckley. “New Hampshire can’t afford two more years of Speaker Bill O’Brien.”
Kevin Landrigan reminds us that O’Brien will first have to survive a tough challenge for his House seat. “O’Brien realizes that his toughest fight may not be in the caucus,” writes Landrigan, “but in the towns of Mont Vernon and New Boston where he’s lost before and will be targeted for re-election.”
Last spring, when the GOP House leadership insisted on cutting the state cigarette tax by ten cents a pack, the Department of Revenue Administration estimated the tax cut would cost the state $14 million in revenue if sales were consistent with the previous year.
House Speaker Bill O’Brien, however, argued the tax cut would actually increase state revenue:
“This tax cut is an important step to regain our advantage and bring business here to New Hampshire. We strongly believe that reducing this tax will result in more revenue, more economic growth and more tax cuts.”
Kevin Landrigan reports state officials now project that the cut will result in a revenue shortfall of — surprise, surprise — $12-$15 million for the year.
[Administrative Services Commissioner Linda Hodgdon] confirmed that through nine months the tax is $11 million off forecast, and $9 million of that is attributed to the tax break.
State officials can now accurately compare pack sales through this nine-month period to the previous three quarters last year when the tax was higher.
At this rate the tax cut could cost the treasury at least $12 million and as much as $15 million for the year.
Today, the state Senate rebuffed House efforts to pass so-called Right to Work legislation. In a voice vote, the Senate tabled House Bill 1677. The bill, as amended by the Senate, is virtually identical to one the House failed to pass over Gov. Lynch’s veto last year.
Senate sponsor Sen. Jim Forsythe explained, “Given the numerous bills that we have coming over from the House it is important to focus our efforts this year on bills that can pass into laws and have an immediate positive impact on jobs and the economy in New Hampshire.”
The vote was a setback for House Speaker Bill O’Brien and his obsessive quest to impose Right to Work on the state. “Today we saw our senators demonstrate leadership by putting aside Speaker O’Brien’s never ending war against working families,” noted State Employees Association president Diana Lacey.
New Hampshire’s “stand your ground” gun law, which is based on model legislation from the Amerihcan Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), is similar to the Florida law that has come under attack following the shooting death of Florida teen Trayvon Martin.
After Coca-Cola, Pepsi and and Kraft Foods announced they were withdrawing from ALEC, Granite State Progress executive director Zandra Rice Hawkins publicly urged the 14 House members who have been identified with the right-wing corporate-funded organization to do likewise.
“Given what we now know about ALEC and its detrimental effect on New Hampshire’s public policy, there’s no excuse for New Hampshire legislators to continue their involvement in the organization,” said Zandra Rice Hawkins, Director of Granite State Progress. “The fact that Coke, Pepsi and Kraft have left ALEC speaks volumes to how toxic the group has become. It’s time for New Hampshire’s ALEC members to follow suit.”
House lawmakers, including several members of the GOP leadership team, were quick to respond — by embracing ALEC and demonizing Rice Hawkins. A few of their replies to the “All Representatives” email list follow below the fold.
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“I’ve asked the voters to forgive me for voting for this clown. I’ve worked for 32 years to help build up the Republican Party in this state and this johnny-come-lately Republican is tearing us apart. It’s as if he’s been planted to undermine the Republican brand in New Hampshire, because no one could do a better job of that than he is doing.”
— GOP state Rep. Tony Soltani, on House Speaker Bill O’Brien
Republican state Rep. Lee Quandt writes that “the destruction of the Republican Party in New Hampshire is almost complete.” He details the wreckage (as only he can):
Some of our state reps also are locally elected officials, selectmen, budget committee, etc. Well, some of them either didn’t get elected to their positions, their family members didn’t get elected to a position or they were thrown out of local office.
They don’t seem to understand why because they believe that this insanity that we call legislative politics (the house) is what they think the voters wanted. Unfortunately, when the new people got elected they just talked amongst themselves, didn’t listen or talk to the voters, and proceeded to dissect state government.
Instead of creating jobs, we have caused the layoff of about 4,000 workers. Anybody proud of that is off their meds and out of touch with the reality of the last election.
Unfortunately, we have a good group of old fashion republicans that are simply overwhelmed by the craziness that is prevalent in the house. We are still counting votes to remove the speaker and waiting for the right spark to do it.
GOP state House Rep. Steve Vaillancourt predicts Democrats will retake the House in November and puts the blame squarely on Speaker Bill O’Brien.
Wrath of voters is about to be unleashed on Republicans this fall; and Bill O’Brien will be the biggest catalyst. In fact, if New Hampshire comes down to being the deciding state in the Electoral College (I showed just how it could happen a few weeks ago), Bill O’Brien could be the reason for Barack Obama’s re-election.
Obama currently leads Romney by seven points in New Hampshire. Every antic from Obama drives down the standing of the Republican Party and redounds to Obama’s benefit. It would be hard to see how Republicans avoid losing an astounding 100-150 seats with Obama carrying the state by such a margin and with O’Brien continuing to disgrace the Republican Party at every turn.
