PPP Poll: Dems Have “Pretty Good Chance to Win”

Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter leads Rep. Frank Guinta by a 47%-43% margin in the latest survey from Public Policy Polling, an 11-point swing from last summer when Guinta had a 48%-41% advantage in the 1st District race.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Congressman Charlie Bass and Democratic challenger Ann Kuster are tied at 42%. The race is essentially unchanged from last summer’s survey.

The old adage goes that voters hate Congress, but like their Congressman. In New Hampshire though they don’t appear to like either. Democrats have a pretty good chance at winning back the two seats they lost there in 2010 this fall.

N.H. Dems React to Obama Support for Marriage Equality

Exciting news - President Obama just announced that he supports marriage equality for same-sex couples! This is a historic moment, and I hope that New Hampshire can serve as a model for the rest of the country in acknowledging and celebrating marriage equality.
— Ann Kuster, 2nd District Congressional candidate

I thank President Obama for standing up for marriage equality and for what is right. So proud that New Hampshire has been a leader in this fight and that all Granite Staters are free to marry.
— Maggie Hassan, Gubernatorial candidate

Wonderful to hear that President Obama supports what we in #NH were proud to establish in 2009 and defend this year, #MarriageEquality
— Jackie Cilley, Gubernatorial candidate 

Great political courage, and a wonderful statement of support for the American ideal of freedom. New Hampshire Governor John Lynch did it three years ago, Vice President Joe Biden did it three days ago, and now President Barack Obama. “…with liberty and justice for all!”
— Jim Splaine, former state Representative

President Obama’s statements this afternoon in support of marriage equality mark a watershed moment in this deeply important civil rights issue. As the highest-ranking openly gay member of the Democratic National Committee, serving as Vice-Chair, I applaud the President’s support for marriage equality and wholeheartedly stand with him and the countless others across New Hampshire and the nation who have fought to ensure equal rights for all.
— Ray Buckley, New Hampshire Democratic Party chair

WMUR Granite State Poll: Shea-Porter, Kuster Lead

Updated: April 26, 2012, 6:25 p.m. 

Democratic challengers Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are leading in their likely Congressional rematches with Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass. In today’s WMUR Granite State Poll,  Shea-Porter leads Guinta 44%-39%, with 16% undecided. Kuster leads Bass by a 40%-39% margin, with 20% undecided.  

Guinta’s popularity is down slightly from February. 31% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 28% view him unfavorably. Absence has made the heart grow fonder for Shea-Porter who now owns a +13% net favorability rating, a 20-point gain from two years ago. 43% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion.

Bass’ favorability ratings are above water for the first time since his election. 39% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 36% view him unfavorably. 26% have a favorable opinion of Kuster with 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +13%, compared to Bass’ +3%, but her name recognition has dropped since the 2010 election.

Both sitting Congressmen have had challenges since their election. Each was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Guinta was ranked as the 31st most conservative member of Congress by National Journal, more conservative than arch-conservative Reps. Allen West and Michele Bachmann.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and subsamples of 230 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.5% and 251 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.

Q1 Fundraising: Bass Falls Further Behind Kuster

2nd District Congressman Charlie Bass fell further behind challenger Ann Kuster in fundraising last quarter. Bass came up $83,000 short, raising $269,000 for the quarter to Kuster’s $352,000. Bass reported having $790,00 cash on hand at the end of the quarter, well shy of Kuster’s $1,032,000.

Nearly two-thirds of Bass’ contributions ($174,000) came from political action committees. Corporate PACs that have now donated the maximum $10,000 for the 2012 election cycle include Alston & Bird, Altria Group, AT&T, California Dairies, Consumer Electronics Associates, Corning, Deloitte, DirecTV Group, Fluor Corporation, International Academy of Compounding Pharmacists, United Technologies, Verizon and Wellpoint.

58% of Bass’ itemized contributions from individuals were from New Hampshire residents, including $5,000 from former governor Craig Benson. Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s leadership PAC also kicked in another $5,000 this quarter.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $   52,160
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $   38,150
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $    4,273
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  174,151
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $        0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $        0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  268,734
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  790,416

Q1 Fundraising: Kuster Juggernaut Continues

2nd District Congressional candidate Ann Kuster’s fundraising juggernaut continued last quarter, when she raised over $352,000 in campaign contributions. Kuster reported having over $1 million in cash on hand at the end of the quarter for her likely rematch with Congressman Charlie Bass.

76% of Kuster’s contributions ($267,291) came from individuals. Contributions from New Hampshire residents made up 58% of her itemized individual contributions ($105,874). Kuster raised $84,778 from political action committees.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $   105,874
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $    77,634
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $    83,783
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $    84,778
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $         0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $         0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $   352,069
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 1,031,569

Kuster Endorsed by Dean’s Democracy for America

2nd District congressional candidate Ann Kuster is one of Democracy for America’s “Grassroots Allstars.” The progressive grassroots organization, founded by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, endorsed the ten in an annual competition for congressional candidates challenging incumbents or seeking open seats.

More than 70,000 votes were cast for the 200 congressional candidates who entered this year’s contest. A second round of voting will select the winner, who will receive fundraising assistance and a commitment to raise $20,000 from DFA members.

4th Quarter Congressional Fundraising Summary

Once again, Democrat Ann Kuster was the big winner in the congressional fundraising sweepstakes for the fourth quarter of 2011. The 2nd District congressional candidate raised over $330,000, nearly doubling the total from her likely Republican opponent, Rep. Charlie Bass, and bringing in more than New Hampshire’s two sitting congressmen combined.

Bass raised $167,500 with half of that coming from Political Action Committees. The PAC donations included $10,000 from Sen. Mitch McConnell and $2,500 from Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

                              Kuster-D     Bass-R
Itemized Contributions  . . . $202,666    $ 80,550
Non-Itemized Contributions. . $ 69,505    $  3,100
Political Committees  . . . . $ 58,951    $ 80,388

Total Receipts  . . . . . . . $331,202    $167,513

Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . $828,036    $600,264

In the 1st District, Carol Shea-Porter led the pack of Democrats vying for the Republican-held seat, raising over $87,000. Andrew Hosmer brought in nearly $51,000 and Joanne Dowdell trailed with $43,500. Dowdell spent almost as much as she raised last quarter. Hosmer had less than $12,000 cash on hand at the end of the year.

Congressman Frank Guinta raised over $130,000, more than Shea-Porter but less than the combined totals from his three Democratic challengers. Guinta paid himself $22,000 from the campaign funds as a loan repayment, but still has a significant advantage in cash on hand, ending the year with over $565,000 compared to Shea-Porter’s $142,500.

                              Dowdell-D   Hosmer-D Shea-Porter-D  Guinta-R
Itemized Contributions  . . . $ 27,575    $ 40,630    $ 29,810    $ 67,500
Non-Itemized Contributions. . $ 13,941    $  9,254    $ 27,590    $  5,215
Political Committees  . . . . $      0    $  1,000    $ 30,000    $ 51,379

Total Receipts. . . . . . . . $ 43,516    $ 50,884    $ 87,552    $130,522

Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . $ 98,445    $ 11,617    $142,496    $565,273

Kuster Raises $325K, Snags Blue America Endorsement

Roll Call reports 2nd District Congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster will announce her campaign raised $325,000 in the fourth quarter to end the year with “well over” $800,000 in cash on hand.

Kuster has raised more than $1 million from over 11,000 contributors in just nine months. In the third quarter, Kuster outraised her opponent, Rep. Charlie Bass, by a 2-to-1 margin and ended the quarter with more cash on hand than the sitting congressman.

Kuster also picked up an endorsement from Blue America, a political action committee founded by some of the most prominent progressive bloggers in the country.

Blue America seeks to help progressive candidates overcome the financial advantage gained by conservatives from corporate interests. “We look for tough races where a little encouragement, some financial help and some advice could go a long way.” 

The endorsement is signed by Howie Klein (Down with Tyranny!), John Amato (Crooks and Liars), Digby (Hullabaloo) and the Blue America team.

Ask Congressman Bass, Whose Side Are You On?

Ann Kuster says extending the payroll tax cut is a “no-brainer.” If Congress refuses, she says, nearly one million Americans will lose their jobs, economic growth will slow and the country could fall into another recession. “So why does Bass want to raise taxes on hard-working New Hampshire families?” Kuster asks.

We can cut payroll taxes for hardworking New Hampshire families and help stimulate the economic recovery. A household earning $50,000 a year would get a $1,500 tax cut - $125 to spend every month on food, gas and other essentials. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office even says that cutting payroll taxes is more effective at promoting economic growth than tax breaks for the rich.

Yet Congressman Charlie Bass has voted to protect tax breaks for billionaires and Big Oil while blocking this critical middle-class tax cut. No wonder New Hampshire voters believe Congress is broken.

This debate shows Bass’s true colors: He supports tax breaks for billionaires and Big Oil but opposes tax relief for 160 million hard-working Americans.

Ask Congressman Bass, whose side are you on anyway?

Charlie Bass: Stick a Fork in this Turkey

Writing in National Journal, Josh Kraushaar names New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass as one of the “top 10 congressional turkeys on the chopping block.” The list of vulnerable lawmakers will be long next year, Kraushaar says, but a select few stand out.

Being from a state that’s leaning Republican, Bass would appear to be in good shape. But Bass is doing everything to put himself in trouble. His fundraising totals have been anemic, and he’s alienated conservatives by entertaining a willingness to raise taxes. Bass is facing a rematch against Democrat Ann McLane Kuster for a seat he barely won in 2010.

3rd Quarter Fundraising Recap

2nd District Congressional candidate Ann Kuster was the state’s big winner in third quarter fundraising. Kuster out-raised likely opponent Congressman Charlie Bass by a 2-to-1 margin and even raised more for the quarter than Bass and Congressman Frank Guinta combined, earning her national attention from National Journal and Politico.

In the 1st District, Carol Shea-Porter led the pack of Democrats vying for Guinta’s seat, raising more than Hosmer and Dowdell combined — leading Pindell to suggest the race is already over. Guinta raised less than half of what he brought in last quarter and was out-raised by the combined totals from the three Democrats. His lackluster performance earned him a spot on National Journal’s list of the “Top 10 House Fundraising Flops,” which he shares with Bass.

                              Kuster-D     Bass-R
Itemized Contributions  . . . $209,964    $ 63,220
Non-Itemized Contributions. . $102,225    $  4,231
Political Committees  . . . . $ 47,250    $ 80,000
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . $359,439    $147,451
                              Dowdell-D   Hosmer-D Shea-Porter-D  Guinta-R
Itemized Contributions  . . . $ 23,625    $ 29,744    $ 48,305    $ 84,613
Non-Itemized Contributions. . $  8,800    $  7,938    $ 25,956    $  5,291
Political Committees  . . . . $      0    $  1,500    $ 15,500    $ 49,000
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 32,425    $ 39,182    $ 89,761    $138,904

Q3 Fundraising: Kuster’s Big Quarter

In a quarter when every other New Hampshire Congressional candidate experienced a big fall-off in campaign contributions, 2nd District Democrat Ann Kuster raised $359,439, matching her take from last quarter.

Kuster not only bested likely Republican opponent Rep. Charlie Bass by a two-to-one margin, but her total topped the combined contributions raised by both of the state’s sitting Congressmen.

61% of Kuster’s $209,964 in itemized individual contributions came from New Hampshire residents. She reported having $590,735 on hand at the end of the quarter, surpassing Rep. Bass by over $100,000.

Itemized Contributions (NH) . . . . . . . . . . . $ 128,225
Itemized Contributions (Outside NH) . . . . . . . $  81,739
Non-Itemized Contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . $ 102,225
Political Committees  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $  47,250
Candidate Contribution  . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
Candidate Loan  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $       0
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 359,439
Cash On Hand  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 590,735