A Look at the Partisan Makeup of NH Senate Districts

I have consolidated the voter ward data from my initial New Hampshire Partisan Voting Index study to take a look at the partisan makeup of New Hampshire’s 24 state Senate districts. (For an introduction to the Cook PVI and my methodology, refer to the original diary.)

The map confirms the Democratic strength in those districts making up the North Country, the Western band, Concord, and the Seacoast. Ten Senate districts lean Democratic, led by three overwhelmingly Democratic districts: District 5 (Hanover and Lebanon area), District 10 (Keene area), and District 21 (Dover and Durham area). Six districts lean Republican, though none are as heavily partisan as the three Democratic districts.

The companion data sheet identifies the incumbent Senator for each district and their margin of victory in the last election, along with the district PVI for 2004 and 2008.

Using this data, I calculated which Senate seats are most likely to change parties in the next election based on the Swing State Project’s Vulnerability Index. This is an academic exercise. The Blue Hampshire community has much more insight into the idiosyncrasies of the individual candidates and districts that will determine the outcome of these races than any broad brush statistical analysis can provide. Nevertheless, I couldn’t resist.

Based on the numbers, the most vulnerable Democratic seat is District 4. Kathleen Sgambati last won in this Republican-leaning district (R+4 PVI) by a 7.6% margin. The most vulnerable Republican is John Gallus in District 1. He last won by a 6.9% margin in his Democratic-leaning (D+4 PVI) district.

Cross-posted to Blue Hampshire