A Partisan Analysis of the Senate Redistricting Plan
Thursday, the Senate Internal Affairs Committee released its redistricting plan for the 24 state Senate districts. To help understand the electoral implications of the plan, I’ve compared the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for the proposed districts to that of the the current districts. (See the New Hampshire Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for a discussion of the Cook PVI and methodology.)
Observers from Rep. Steve Vaillancourt to Paul Twomey have said this plan could have been a lot worse for Democrats. Nevertheless, the proposal clearly improves Republican electoral chances by concentrating Democratic votes in current Democratic strongholds. Four of the five districts with seats held by Democrats today will become even more Democratic under this plan. The fifth Democratic seat, held by Sen. Lou D’Allesandro, is unchanged — despite rumors that it would be targeted for a Republican takeover.
Meanwhile, nine of the 16 Republican incumbents seeking reelection will benefit from a more Republican-leaning electorate; five will run for reelection in districts with exactly the same make-up as before. The big winners are Sen. Fenton Groen, whose district will be four points more Republican, Sens. Russell Prescott and Bob Odell (five points more Republican) and Sen. Nancy Stiles (seven points more Republican).
The proposed plan will have a public hearing Wednesday at 1:00 PM in LOB 205/207. The Senate will likely vote to adopt the plan on January 25. A district-by-district analysis follows below the fold.
SENATE DISTRICT 1
Incumbent: Sen. John Gallus (R-Berlin)
Current PVI: D+4, Proposed PVI: D+3
Adds Bath (R+2), Benton (R+10), Easton (D+13), Landaff (R+3), Monroe (R+10), Hadley’s Purchase, Thornton (R+1), Woodstock (D+6). Removes Albany (D+8), Bartlett (D+7), Bean’s Purchase, Hale’s Location (R+25), Hart’s Location (D+4), Jackson (D+12) Shelburne (EVEN), Waterville Valley (D+8).
SENATE DISTRICT 2
Incumbent: Sen. Jeanie Forrester (R-Meredith)
Current PVI: D+2, Proposed PVI: D+1
Adds Andover (D+4), Danbury (R+4), Grafton (EVEN), Hill (R+3) Salisbury (R+3), Tilton (EVEN). Removes Bath (R+2), Benton (R+10), Canaan (D+8), Easton (D+13), Holderness (D+4), Landaff (R+3), Lyme (D+21), Monroe (R+10), Thorton (R+1) Woodstock (D+6).
SENATE DISTRICT 3
Incumbent: Sen. Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro)
Current PVI: R+1, Proposed PVI: EVEN
Adds Albany (D+8), Bean’s Purchase, Bartlett (D+7), Freedom (R+4), Hale’s Location (R+25), Hart’s Location (D+4), Holderness (D+4), Jackson (D+12), Shelburne (EVEN), Waterville Valley (D+8). Removes Farmington (EVEN), Freedom (R+4), Milton (EVEN).
SENATE DISTRICT 4
Incumbent: Sen. Jim Forsythe (R-Strafford) *Not seeking reelection
Current PVI: R+4, Proposed PVI: D+9
Adds Barrington (D+2), Dover (D+11), Rollingsworth (D+7), Somersworth (D+8). Removes Alton (R+12), Barnstead (R+4), Belmont (R+4), Gilford (R+2), Gilmanton (R+2), Laconia (R+2), New Durham (R+4), Strafford (EVEN), Tilton (EVEN).
SENATE DISTRICT 5
Incumbent: Sen. Matthew Houde (D-Plainfield)
Current PVI: D+13, Proposed PVI: D+16
Adds Canaan (D+8), Charlestown (D+8), Claremont (D+7), Lyme (D+21). Removes Andover (D+4), Croydon (R+9), Danbury (R+4), Franklin (D+3), Grafton (EVEN), Grantham (D+7), Hill (R+3), Springfield (R+2) Wilmot (D+11).
SENATE DISTRICT 6
Incumbent: Sen. Fenton Groen (R-Rochester)
Current PVI: D+3, Proposed PVI: R+1
Adds Alton (R+12), Farmington (EVEN), Gilmanton (R+2), Milton (EVEN), New Durham (R+4). Removes Barrington (D+2), Madbury (D+8), Nottingham (R+2), Somersworth (D+8).
SENATE DISTRICT 7
Incumbent: Sen. Andy Sanborn (R-Henniker)
Current PVI: D+1, Proposed PVI: R+1
Adds Belmont (R+7), Franklin (D+3), Gilford (R+5), Laconia (R+2). Removes Antrim (D+3), Bennington (EVEN), Bradford (D+5), Deering (EVEN), Francestown (D+1), Hancock (D+10), Harrisville (D+20), Henniker (D+7), Hillsborough (EVEN), Nelson (D+15), Salisbury (R+3), Warner (D+6), Weare (R+8), Windsor (R+1).
SENATE DISTRICT 8
Incumbent: Sen. Bob Odell (R-Lempster)
Current PVI: D+5, Proposed PVI: EVEN
Adds Antrim (D+3), Bennington (EVEN), Bradford (D+5), Croydon (R+9), Deering (EVEN), Francestown (D+1), Grantham (D+7), Hillsborough (EVEN), Springfield (R+2), Stoddard (D+2), Unity (EVEN), Weare (R+8), Wilmot (D+11), Windsor (R+1). Removes Alstead (D+9), Charlestown (D+8), Claremont (D+7), Gilsum (D+2), Roxbury (D+15), Sullivan (D+4), Walpole (D+10), Westmoreland (D+9).
SENATE DISTRICT 9
Incumbent: Sen. Raymond White (R-Bedford) *Not seeking reelection
Current PVI: R+7, Proposed PVI: R+2
Adds Dublin (D+9), Fitzwilliam (D+4), Hancock (D+10), Jaffrey (D+1), Peterborough (D+12), Richmond (D+6), Sharon (D+12), Temple (D+3), Troy (D+5). Removes Merrimack (R+4).
SENATE DISTRICT 10
Incumbent: Sen. Molly Kelly (D-Keene)
Current PVI: D+13, Proposed PVI: D+14
Adds Alstead (D+11), Harrisville (D+20), Gilsum (D+2), Nelson (D+15), Roxbury (D+15), Sullivan (D+4), Walpole (D+10), Westmoreland (D+9). Removes Dublin (D+9), Fitzwilliam (D+4), Richmond (D+6), Troy (D+5).
SENATE DISTRICT 11
Incumbent: Sen. Peter Bragdon (R-Milford)
Current PVI: EVEN, Proposed PVI: R+2
Adds Merrimack (R+4). Removes Greenville (D+2), Jaffrey (D+1), New Ipswich (R+16), Peterborough (D+12), Rindge (R+3), Sharon (D+12), Temple (D+3).
SENATE DISTRICT 12
Incumbent: Sen. Jim Luther (R-Hollis)
Current PVI: EVEN, Proposed PVI: R+2
Adds Greenville (D+2), New Ipswich (R+16), Rindge (R+3). Removes Nashua Ward 9 (D+2).
SENATE DISTRICT 13
Incumbent: Sen. Gary Lambert (R-Nashua) *Not seeking reelection
Current PVI: D+7, Proposed PVI: D+6
Adds Nashua Ward 9 (D+2).
SENATE DISTRICT 14
Incumbent: Sen. Sharon Carson (R-Londonderry)
Current PVI: R+6, Proposed PVI: R+6
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 15
Incumbent: Sen. Sylvia Larsen (D-Concord)
Current PVI: D+10, Proposed PVI: D+11
Adds Henniker (D+7), Warner (D+6). Removes Pembroke (EVEN).
SENATE DISTRICT 16
Incumbent: Sen. David Boutin (R-Hooksett)
Current PVI: R+2, Proposed PVI: R+2
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 17
Incumbent: Sen. John Barnes (R-Raymond)
Current PVI: R+6, Proposed PVI: R+3
Adds Barnstead (R+4), Pembroke (EVEN), Nottingham (R+1), Strafford (EVEN). Removes Brentwood (R+5), Chester (R+11), Danville (R+8), Fremont (R+8), Sandown (R+9).
SENATE DISTRICT 18
Incumbent: Sen. Tom De Blois (R-Manchester)
Current PVI: R+2, Proposed PVI: R+2
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 19
Incumbent: Sen. Jim Rausch (R-Derry)
Current PVI: R+7, Proposed PVI: R+7
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 20
Incumbent: Sen. Lou D’Allesandro (D-Manchester)
Current PVI: EVEN, Proposed PVI: EVEN
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 21
Incumbent: Sen. Amanda Merrill (D-Durham)
Current PVI: D+12, Proposed PVI: D+16
Adds Madbury (D+8), Newfields (R+1), Newington (R+4), Newmarket (D+12), Portsmouth (D+18). Removes Dover (D+11), Epping (D+1), Rollingsford (D+7).
SENATE DISTRICT 22
Incumbent: Sen. Chuck Morse (R-Salem)
Current PVI: R+7, Proposed PVI: R+7
No change.
SENATE DISTRICT 23
Incumbent: Sen. Russell Prescott (R-Kingston)
Current PVI: D+3, Proposed PVI: R+2
Adds Brentwood (R+5), Chester (R+11), Danville (R+8), Epping (D+1), Fremont (R+8), Sandown (R+9). Removes Kensington (R+3), Newfields (R+1), Newmarket (D+12), Newton (R+3), Seabrook (R+2), South Hampton (R+1), Stratham (D+1).
SENATE DISTRICT 24
Incumbent: Sen.Nancy Stiles (R-Hampton)
Current PVI: D+6, Proposed PVI: R+1
Adds Kensington (R+3), Newton (R+3), Seabrook (R+2), South Hampton (R+1), Stratham (D+1). Removes Newington (R+4), Portsmouth (D+18).
